Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/3536

Bill Overview

Title: Crime Doesn’t Fly Act of 2022

Description: This bill prohibits the use of warrants for the arrest, removal, or deportation of an alien as proof of identity at an airport security checkpoint unless the alien is being removed from the United States pursuant to immigration laws.

Sponsors: Sen. Daines, Steve [R-MT]

Target Audience

Population: Non-citizens who might be undocumented or have immigration-related legal issues worldwide

Estimated Size: 15000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Student (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 32 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm worried that this policy will make traveling for research presentations more difficult.
  • I already feel anxious about being questioned while traveling, so this adds to the stress.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 6 7
Year 20 7 8

Construction Worker (Houston, TX)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy might stop me from visiting family in another state because I can't use a warrant as ID.
  • I feel trapped and even thought of flying makes me anxious.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 3 4
Year 2 2 4
Year 3 3 5
Year 5 4 5
Year 10 5 6
Year 20 6 6

Software Developer (Chicago, IL)

Age: 28 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I don't think this affects me much as I have proper ID for travel.
  • However, I'm worried about colleagues who might struggle due to this policy.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 9 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 9

Small Business Owner (Miami, FL)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy is more of a headache than anything substantial since I have identification.
  • But I can imagine it causing issues for my employees who are undocumented.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Au Pair (New York, NY)

Age: 22 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • My immediate concern is minimal since I don't have a warrant; however, my host family can't travel freely.
  • It adds an extra layer of concern to traveling with the family.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 9 9

Senior Caretaker (Phoenix, AZ)

Age: 50 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm not affected directly but I worry about people I know who can't fly now.
  • This could make it tougher to manage our families' movements for emergencies.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 9
Year 2 8 9
Year 3 9 9
Year 5 9 10
Year 10 10 10
Year 20 10 10

IT Support Specialist (Seattle, WA)

Age: 40 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I don't foresee issues as I travel under a business visa, but procedural changes are concerning.
  • The company HR is looking into this, but our travel plans might be disrupted minimally.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 9

Chef (San Diego, CA)

Age: 38 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This means I might not visit my family outside of California.
  • I feel my world shrinking because of these policies.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 3 5
Year 3 3 5
Year 5 4 6
Year 10 5 6
Year 20 6 6

Accountant (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 27 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 1.5 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I might need to assist friends who can't travel as easily due to this.
  • A few friends have immigration-related concerns, and this complicates our travel plans.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 9

Graduate Researcher (Boston, MA)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Direct impact is limited but collaborative work could be hampered if fellow researchers face travel hurdles.
  • Our conference plans might have to be adjusted depending on team members' situations.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 10

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $12000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $15000000)

Year 2: $12500000 (Low: $10500000, High: $15500000)

Year 3: $12900000 (Low: $10900000, High: $16000000)

Year 5: $14000000 (Low: $11500000, High: $17500000)

Year 10: $16000000 (Low: $13000000, High: $20000000)

Year 100: $25000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $30000000)

Key Considerations