Bill Overview
Title: Volcanic Ash and Fumes Act of 2022
Description: This bill incorporates the capacities and expertise of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) into the National Volcano Early Warning and Monitoring System. Specifically, the bill integrates into the purposes of the system relevant capacities of NOAA to strengthen the warning and monitoring systems of volcano observatories in the United States. This includes observations and modeling of the results from volcanic eruptions (e.g., emissions of gases, aerosols, and ash; atmospheric dynamics and chemistry; and ocean chemistry) that are carried out by NOAA's Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers located in Anchorage, Alaska, and the District of Columbia. The bill provides for a memorandum of understanding to establish cooperative support for the activities of the system from NOAA, including environmental observations, modeling, and temporary duty assignments of personnel to support emergency activities. The Department of Commerce must (1) submit to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) annual cost estimates for modernization activities and support of the system for NOAA; and (2) collaborate with the USGS to implement activities related to the expertise of NOAA, including observations and modeling of results from volcanic eruptions. Commerce must develop a plan to implement this bill during the five-year period beginning on the date on which the plan is developed. The plan shall include an estimate of the cost and schedule required for implementation. Upon the plan's completion, Commerce shall make it publicly available.
Sponsors: Sen. Schatz, Brian [D-HI]
Target Audience
Population: People affected by volcanic ash and fumes globally
Estimated Size: 100000000
- Volcanoes are located in many parts of the world, with significant populations living near them, especially in countries like Indonesia, the Philippines, Japan, and countries along the Pacific Ring of Fire.
- Volcanic eruptions can affect air quality and aviation globally due to the release of ash and gases into the atmosphere, making international monitoring and predictions crucial.
- The impact on populations from volcanic ash and fumes includes health risks, impacts on agriculture, and disruptions to air travel.
- Volcanic eruptions could impact global climate and ecosystems through the release of sulfates and other aerosols, which can lead to cooling effects.
Reasoning
- The majority of the U.S. population will not be directly impacted in their daily lives by volcanic activity, but they may face travel disruptions and nationwide climate impacts that affect their wellbeing indirectly.
- Volcanic ash primarily affects people near active volcanoes, but when eruptions are large enough, they can also affect air travel well beyond any single region due to ash clouds.
- The NOAA integration is expected to improve monitoring and early warning, potentially mitigating some adverse effects on both residents near active volcanoes and air traffic across the country.
- The budget constraints suggest that the policy will likely focus first on areas with the highest immediate risks and on costs related to improving early warning systems.
Simulated Interviews
Airline Pilot (Seattle, WA)
Age: 42 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The integration of NOAA's expertise into early warning systems is welcome, as it could improve flight safety.
- I hope this policy will ensure better air traffic management to avoid disruptions caused by volcanic ash.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Technical Support Specialist (Anchorage, AK)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Living near active volcanoes can be daunting.
- The policy could provide peace of mind with better monitoring capabilities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Travel Agent (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 56 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This act potentially enhances travel safety and reduces inconvenience caused by volcanic ash.
- Improved monitoring can assist in planning and adjusting travel itineraries.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Retired (Portland, OR)
Age: 65 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- My main concern is the air quality and long-term environment changes due to volcanoes.
- The policy could provide better information about when it's safe to pursue outdoor activities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Agricultural Scientist (Hilo, HI)
Age: 33 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy may enhance understanding of volcanic effects on agriculture.
- We could develop better strategies to protect crops from ash fall.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 4 |
Student (Miami, FL)
Age: 22 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- While volcanoes aren't a daily concern here, understanding them contributes to global climate science.
- Advances made through this policy could inform broader studies on climate change.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Meteorologist (Chicago, IL)
Age: 49 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Integrating NOAA's capabilities enhances predictive models which are crucial for weather forecasting.
- This policy could increase the accuracy of climate change predictions through better volcano monitoring.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Environmental Lawyer (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 39 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This bill strengthens our ability to respond to volcanic activity, which is vital for public safety.
- I support comprehensive action that integrates existing resources to mitigate natural disasters.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Tour Guide (Honolulu, HI)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Better forecasting could make tourism safer and more reliable in volcanic areas.
- This policy might balance safety and tourism needs effectively.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Software Developer (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 27 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This bill could lead to advancements in geospatial data technology which excites me professionally.
- Monitoring and predicting natural events like volcano eruptions are of great technological interest.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $30000000 (Low: $25000000, High: $35000000)
Year 2: $31000000 (Low: $26000000, High: $36000000)
Year 3: $32000000 (Low: $27000000, High: $37000000)
Year 5: $34000000 (Low: $29000000, High: $39000000)
Year 10: $37000000 (Low: $32000000, High: $42000000)
Year 100: $50000000 (Low: $45000000, High: $55000000)
Key Considerations
- Coordination between NOAA and USGS, including sharing resources and data, is essential for effective implementation.
- Addressing potential staffing requirements and ensuring training to accommodate new systems processes.
- Continuous updating of technology and methods to maintain accuracy of observations and modeling.