Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/3532

Bill Overview

Title: A bill to require the imposition of sanctions with respect to Ansarallah and its officials, agents, or affiliates for acts of international terrorism.

Description: This bill requires the President to take actions against Ansarallah, the Iran-backed movement in Yemen also known as the Houthis. Specifically, the President must designate Ansarallah a foreign terrorist organization. The President must also impose sanctions on Ansarallah and any foreign person (individual or entity) that is an official, agent, or affiliate of Ansarallah. The President must also report to Congress a determination as to whether specified foreign persons are officials, agents, or affiliates of Ansarallah.

Sponsors: Sen. Cruz, Ted [R-TX]

Target Audience

Population: People living in Yemen

Estimated Size: 3000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Government Foreign Affairs Analyst (Washington, D.C.)

Age: 35 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could intensify our diplomatic challenges in the region, but tightening sanctions might weaken Houthi power.
  • I'm concerned about potential humanitarian crises resulting from enforced sanctions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 5 7
Year 5 5 7
Year 10 5 7
Year 20 5 7

Business Owner in Logistics (New York, NY)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy may not have a significant immediate effect on my business but could restrict future partnerships with NGOs in Yemen.
  • Long-term, we might need to shift regional strategic plans if sanctions severely disrupt access routes.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 5 6
Year 10 4 6
Year 20 4 6

Human Rights NGO Worker (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The sanctions could significantly disrupt aid to the Yemeni people, worsening conditions on the ground.
  • I'm worried this will impact our ability to provide timely aid where it's most needed.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 8
Year 2 6 8
Year 3 5 8
Year 5 5 8
Year 10 5 8
Year 20 5 8

Professor of International Law (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The designation of the Houthis as a terrorist organization could complicate international legal frameworks involving conflict settlement.
  • I am interested to see how this policy will fit into broader counter-terrorism strategies.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 6 7
Year 20 6 7

Oil Industry Analyst (Houston, TX)

Age: 30 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The potential destabilization from sanctions could affect oil trade routes in the region, but Yemen's direct oil influence is limited.
  • Keeping an eye on ripple effects is necessary for strategic business continuity.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Yemeni-American Community Organizer (Chicago, IL)

Age: 50 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Sanctions might escalate conflicts leading to more unresolved humanitarian issues in Yemen.
  • We continue to work on supporting Yemeni communities directly affected by the conflict.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 5 7
Year 3 5 7
Year 5 5 7
Year 10 5 7
Year 20 5 7

Academic Researcher (Boston, MA)

Age: 38 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy might have diplomatic unintended consequences, affecting ceasefire agreements or negotiations.
  • It's an important development in tracking the effectiveness of sanctions as part of foreign policy.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 6 8
Year 10 6 8
Year 20 6 8

Healthcare Worker (Detroit, MI)

Age: 42 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Restrictions from the policy might tighten resources available for Yemeni refugee support through our NGO connections.
  • Continued political tension can worsen health outcomes for affected populations.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 5 7
Year 5 5 7
Year 10 5 7
Year 20 5 7

Legal Advisor (Atlanta, GA)

Age: 29 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • New sanctions could increase the legal compliance workload for companies dealing with international partners linked to Yemen.
  • It's an opportunity to strengthen advisory roles in adjusting to the new legal requirements.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 7 8

Retired (Miami, FL)

Age: 55 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • While retired, my interest in US actions in the Middle East remains. However, I doubt this policy affects me significantly personally.
  • The military focus on the Middle East often impacts public perception, not just policy outcomes.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 9
Year 2 9 9
Year 3 9 9
Year 5 9 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 9

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)

Year 2: $45000000 (Low: $25000000, High: $65000000)

Year 3: $40000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $60000000)

Year 5: $30000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $50000000)

Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Key Considerations