Bill Overview
Title: A bill to require the imposition of sanctions with respect to Ansarallah and its officials, agents, or affiliates for acts of international terrorism.
Description: This bill requires the President to take actions against Ansarallah, the Iran-backed movement in Yemen also known as the Houthis. Specifically, the President must designate Ansarallah a foreign terrorist organization. The President must also impose sanctions on Ansarallah and any foreign person (individual or entity) that is an official, agent, or affiliate of Ansarallah. The President must also report to Congress a determination as to whether specified foreign persons are officials, agents, or affiliates of Ansarallah.
Sponsors: Sen. Cruz, Ted [R-TX]
Target Audience
Population: People living in Yemen
Estimated Size: 3000
- The total population of Yemen is about 30 million people. Most of them are in some way impacted by the ongoing conflict involving the Houthis.
- Ansarallah, known as the Houthis, is a major faction in the Yemeni Civil War, affecting millions of Yemenis directly and indirectly due to military actions, governance, and humanitarian conditions influenced by this group.
- Sanctions could impact not only members of Ansarallah but also civilians in regions under Houthi control due to economic pressures.
- Sanctions may limit international aid and economic activity in Yemen, thus impacting the entire Yemeni population indirectly.
- Considering past sanctions, significant indirect effects often extend to neighboring countries or entities doing business with Yemen.
Reasoning
- The impact of this policy on Americans will be limited as their direct involvement in Yemen is minimal. However, professionals such as diplomats, humanitarian workers, or employees of businesses working in the region may feel its indirect effects.
- Wellbeing among these groups may slightly vary depending on their duties or affiliations related to the affected entities in Yemen.
- There could be some Americans with Yemeni heritage who are concerned about the broader implications of this policy on their family or ancestral home, although this effect is more emotional and social rather than economic or direct.
- The potential shifts in policy impact on a significant number of Yemeni civilians and their subsequent safety may alter personal and professional perceptions of US foreign policy among those in the global humanitarian aid sector.
Simulated Interviews
Government Foreign Affairs Analyst (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 35 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could intensify our diplomatic challenges in the region, but tightening sanctions might weaken Houthi power.
- I'm concerned about potential humanitarian crises resulting from enforced sanctions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 7 |
Business Owner in Logistics (New York, NY)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy may not have a significant immediate effect on my business but could restrict future partnerships with NGOs in Yemen.
- Long-term, we might need to shift regional strategic plans if sanctions severely disrupt access routes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 6 |
Human Rights NGO Worker (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions could significantly disrupt aid to the Yemeni people, worsening conditions on the ground.
- I'm worried this will impact our ability to provide timely aid where it's most needed.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 8 |
Professor of International Law (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The designation of the Houthis as a terrorist organization could complicate international legal frameworks involving conflict settlement.
- I am interested to see how this policy will fit into broader counter-terrorism strategies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Oil Industry Analyst (Houston, TX)
Age: 30 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The potential destabilization from sanctions could affect oil trade routes in the region, but Yemen's direct oil influence is limited.
- Keeping an eye on ripple effects is necessary for strategic business continuity.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Yemeni-American Community Organizer (Chicago, IL)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sanctions might escalate conflicts leading to more unresolved humanitarian issues in Yemen.
- We continue to work on supporting Yemeni communities directly affected by the conflict.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 7 |
Academic Researcher (Boston, MA)
Age: 38 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy might have diplomatic unintended consequences, affecting ceasefire agreements or negotiations.
- It's an important development in tracking the effectiveness of sanctions as part of foreign policy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 8 |
Healthcare Worker (Detroit, MI)
Age: 42 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Restrictions from the policy might tighten resources available for Yemeni refugee support through our NGO connections.
- Continued political tension can worsen health outcomes for affected populations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 7 |
Legal Advisor (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- New sanctions could increase the legal compliance workload for companies dealing with international partners linked to Yemen.
- It's an opportunity to strengthen advisory roles in adjusting to the new legal requirements.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Retired (Miami, FL)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- While retired, my interest in US actions in the Middle East remains. However, I doubt this policy affects me significantly personally.
- The military focus on the Middle East often impacts public perception, not just policy outcomes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)
Year 2: $45000000 (Low: $25000000, High: $65000000)
Year 3: $40000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $60000000)
Year 5: $30000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $50000000)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- The socio-economic impact on the Yemeni population should be monitored to prevent exacerbating the humanitarian situation.
- Monitoring mechanisms need strengthening to effectively implement sanctions without unintended harm to civilians.
- Coordination with international allies will be crucial for the effectiveness of sanctions.