Bill Overview
Title: REEShore Act of 2022
Description: This bill establishes a strategic reserve of rare earth metals and rare earth metal products and sets out other requirements related to rare earth metals. Specifically, the bill requires defense contractors to disclose the provenance of rare earth metal permanent magnets and restricts the use of rare earth metals sourced from China in certain defense items and services. Additionally, the U.S. Trade Representative must investigate China for unfair trade practices related to the rare earth metals market, and the Department of Defense must report on efforts to reduce the dependence of U.S. allies on non-allied sources of rare earth metals.
Sponsors: Sen. Cotton, Tom [R-AR]
Target Audience
Population: People reliant on rare earths for economic and technological activities
Estimated Size: 450000000
- The global demand for rare earth metals is high, as they are crucial in many technologies, including electronics, renewable energy, and defense applications.
- China is the world's largest producer and exporter of rare earth metals, supplying about 70-80% of global rare earths.
- The legislation targets reducing China's influence in the rare earth market by restricting their rare earth exports' use in the U.S.
- The creation of a strategic reserve and investigation of Chinese trade practices will increase demand for rare earth metals from other sources, potentially impacting global rare earth markets.
Reasoning
- The policy primarily targets the defense and technology sectors, which are heavily reliant on rare earth metals. It aims to reduce dependence on Chinese imports, increasing demand for alternative sources.
- The impact will likely be pronounced among defense contractors, tech manufacturers, and communities involved in rare earth extraction in the U.S.
- Many individuals in the electronics and renewable energy sectors may see indirect effects, including potential changes in material costs and supply chain adjustments.
- As the policy's budget covers initiatives to establish reserves and conduct investigations, the financial impacts might be more focused on strategic planning rather than immediate large-scale employment or production changes initially.
- The wider population may not feel direct effects immediately, but as strategic reserves align with more domestic or allied sources, it might influence job creation in mining and processing.
- Given the program's scale, it will not cover the entire American population but will focus on those directly involved in relevant industries, such as defense and technology-focused jobs.
Simulated Interviews
Defense Contractor (San Diego, California)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy is a necessary step to ensure national security and reduce dependency on foreign critical materials.
- However, it will require significant adjustments in sourcing materials, which could increase costs in the short term.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 6 |
Renewable Energy Engineer (Boulder, Colorado)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could impact our supply chain, but it might also spur innovations to find alternative materials or recycling methods.
- I'm concerned about the initial costs and how they may affect project budgets.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Rare Earth Metals Mining Consultant (Houston, Texas)
Age: 51 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The move to establish a domestic reserve will increase opportunities in U.S. mining operations.
- It will take time for local operations to scale, and there could be growing pains related to regulatory and environmental compliance.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 5 |
Tech Startup Founder (Mountain View, California)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about potential cost increases for rare earth components, which could affect pricing and competitiveness.
- On the other hand, a more diversified supply chain could lead to greater stability in the long run.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Automotive Industry Analyst (Detroit, Michigan)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Auto manufacturers will need to reevaluate material sources; this could result in both challenges and opportunities.
- Long-term, the policy could enhance domestic production capabilities and reduce risks associated with foreign dependencies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Retired Engineer (Miami, Florida)
Age: 58 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Having worked in defense, I see the need to protect critical supply chains from global disruptions.
- This seems like a prudent measure, though I hope it will be managed efficiently and transparently.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Environmental Advocate (Portland, Oregon)
Age: 26 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Transitioning sourcing could either strengthen or weaken environmental protections, depending on execution.
- There is an opportunity here to lead by example in sustainable practices, but it must be carefully managed.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Supply Chain Manager (Richmond, Virginia)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 8.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could mean renegotiating with existing suppliers and potentially finding new ones, which is resource-intensive.
- It would be great to have more stability and fewer disruptions from geopolitical issues.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Financial Analyst (New York, New York)
Age: 42 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- From a financial perspective, this could introduce short-term volatility in the rare earth markets.
- If managed well, it could lead to more stabilized prices and possibly a good investment environment in the domestic sector.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Teacher (Raleigh, North Carolina)
Age: 33 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Although the policy doesn't affect me directly, I believe it's important for students to understand how geopolitical issues influence everyday technologies.
- It's an interesting case study in resource management and economic strategy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $200000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $250000000)
Year 2: $150000000 (Low: $100000000, High: $200000000)
Year 3: $150000000 (Low: $100000000, High: $200000000)
Year 5: $300000000 (Low: $250000000, High: $350000000)
Year 10: $400000000 (Low: $350000000, High: $450000000)
Year 100: $500000000 (Low: $400000000, High: $600000000)
Key Considerations
- The dependency of the U.S. on China for rare earth metals is a major strategic concern for national security.
- Implementing this bill may face opposition from industries reliant on the current rare earths supply chain.
- Encouraging domestic production of rare earths could have environmental implications that need to be addressed.