Bill Overview
Title: STAND with Taiwan Act of 2022
Description: This bill requires the imposition of sanctions in the event of a military invasion of Taiwan by China and addresses related issues. If the President determines that China or any of its proxies has initiated a military invasion of Taiwan, or if a joint resolution making such a determination is enacted, the bill requires the President to impose visa- and property-blocking sanctions on any foreign person who is a member of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP); the Department of the Treasury to impose property-blocking sanctions on specified foreign financial institutions, including the People's Bank of China and the China Construction Bank; Treasury to impose property-blocking sanctions on any entity affiliated with the CCP; the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to prohibit the trading of the securities of an issuer affiliated with the CCP on a national securities exchange; Treasury to prohibit U.S. financial institutions from making certain investments, such as investments in an entity owned or controlled by the CCP or China's military; and the prohibition of the importation of certain goods, including goods produced wholly or in part in China or by certain entities owned or financed by the CCP. Furthermore, a depository institution or an SEC-registered securities broker or dealer may not process funds transfers (1) to or from China, or (2) for the benefit of CCP members. The bill provides various waivers and exceptions to the required sanctions and prohibitions, such as an exception for certain U.S. intelligence activities.
Sponsors: Sen. Sullivan, Dan [R-AK]
Target Audience
Population: People directly and indirectly affected by actions under the STAND with Taiwan Act of 2022 (e.g., residents of Taiwan, CCP members, affiliates, international financial institutions, international traders)
Estimated Size: 300000000
- The legislation specifically targets actions in case of a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan.
- The bill includes financial and economic sanctions related to entities and individuals associated with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
- The sanctions would impact foreign financial institutions, CCP members, and entities affiliated with the CCP.
- Trading of securities affiliated with the CCP will be banned on national securities exchanges.
- U.S. financial institutions will be prohibited from making investments in entities controlled by the CCP.
- A prohibition is placed on the importation of goods produced in China or by CCP-controlled entities.
- These measures would affect global financial markets, international trade, and foreign policy dynamics.
Reasoning
- The primary population directly impacted by this policy will include Americans involved in trade with China, particularly those in the financial sector and businesses dependent on Chinese imports. The secondary effects may be felt economy-wide as changes in the availability and pricing of goods could affect consumers.
- Given the broad scope of sanctions, financial institutions and individuals investing in China are likely to experience notable impacts. Similarly, businesses dependent on intermediate goods from China will face supply chain disruptions.
- A minority of the population, notably those directly financially tied to China through investments or trade, will experience a high impact, while the broader public may see low to medium impacts in terms of economic repercussions from reduced imports.
- It is vital to balance the policy with its budget limits, focusing sanctions effectively while ensuring domestic economic stability.
Simulated Interviews
Financial Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy will make my job more challenging as the market dynamics will shift significantly.
- I foresee increased volatility in global financial markets, which could affect my day-to-day work.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Tech Entrepreneur (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 38 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- With the sanctions, I will need to find alternative suppliers, which could increase costs.
- The uncertainty caused by such geopolitical tensions is bad for business.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Graduate Student (Boston, MA)
Age: 29 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could provide me with real-time case studies for my research.
- I am concerned about the potential global economic fallout.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Factory Manager (Houston, TX)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If the supply chain is disrupted, operations could be hampered significantly.
- I may have to increase product prices, affecting competitiveness.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 9 |
College Professor (Chicago, IL)
Age: 61 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy offers real-world examples for discussing the impacts of trade sanctions.
- I am curious to see how various industries will adapt to these sanctions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Retail Buyer (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 27 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions could force us to diversify our suppliers, which might increase our costs.
- There could be delays in product availability, impacting sales.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Software Developer (Seattle, WA)
Age: 42 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I anticipate more barriers to collaboration with Chinese tech companies.
- This could be a chance for the US to strengthen internal tech capabilities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Logistics Coordinator (Miami, FL)
Age: 51 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions could result in higher shipping costs and logistical challenges.
- It could prompt us to explore new international partnerships.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Car Manufacturer (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 36 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 6.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- We must prepare for potential cost increases and find alternative suppliers.
- This can strain our pricing flexibility and profit margins.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Textile Exporter (Detroit, MI)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I am particularly concerned about decreased demand from Chinese partners if retaliatory tariffs are imposed.
- Diversifying my market base will be essential.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $500000000 (Low: $300000000, High: $700000000)
Year 2: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 3: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- The sanctions are conditional and will only be enacted if a military invasion occurs.
- The breadth of sanctions is vast, covering financial institutions, securities, and trade.
- The geopolitical impact could cause shifts in existing trade agreements and foreign relations.
- Consequences on U.S. domestic markets will depend on the agility of changes in supply chain routes away from China.