Bill Overview
Title: REEShore Act of 2022
Description: This bill establishes a strategic reserve of rare earth metals and rare earth metal products and sets out other requirements related to rare earth metals. Specifically, the bill requires defense contractors to disclose the provenance of rare earth metal permanent magnets and restricts the use of rare earth metals sourced from China in certain defense items and services. Additionally, the U.S. Trade Representative must investigate China for unfair trade practices related to the rare earth metals market, and the Department of Defense must report on efforts to reduce the dependence of U.S. allies on non-allied sources of rare earth metals.
Sponsors: Sen. Cotton, Tom [R-AR]
Target Audience
Population: people employed in the rare earth metal industries and defense contracting sectors
Estimated Size: 1500000
- Defense contractors will be significantly impacted as they must disclose the origins of rare earth metals and adjust their procurement practices to comply with the restrictions on Chinese-sourced rare earth metals.
- Companies involved in the production and supply of rare earth metals, especially those outside China, may see increased demand and economic impact due to the shift away from Chinese sources.
- Workers employed in the rare earth metals industry in the US might see job growth or changes due to the emphasis on domestic sourcing and strategic reserves.
- US allies and their defense industries may also be impacted by efforts to reduce their reliance on non-allied sources, potentially leading to increased trade or collaboration with the US.
- Chinese companies involved in the rare earth market might be indirectly impacted due to an expected decrease in demand from US defense contractors.
Reasoning
- This policy specifically targets individuals in the defense contracting and rare earth metals industries. Therefore, the interviews focus on defense contractors, rare earth metal production workers, and industry analysts.
- Individuals working in defense contracting will face direct impacts due to disclosure requirements and restrictions on Chinese-sourced materials, which might affect their operational processes.
- Workers in the rare earth metal production industry might benefit from potential job growth and increased demand for domestically sourced materials.
- There will also be broader economic impacts, potentially affecting regions with significant ties to defense contracting and rare earth production facilities.
- Not all populations will be equally affected; those outside the specified industries might see little to no impact.
Simulated Interviews
Defense Contractor Manager (California)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think the policy is necessary for national security, but it will increase operational costs for companies like ours.
- We may need to find new suppliers quickly, which could disrupt our projects in the short term.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Rare Earth Metals Plant Worker (Wyoming)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could mean more jobs and better job security for us as the demand for domestic processing increases.
- I'm hopeful that we get more investments in our facilities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Trade Analyst (Texas)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's a strategic move to bring more control within the US and could stabilize the market long-term.
- The trade investigation might strain US-China relations, but it could lead to fairer practices.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Defense Contract Compliance Officer (Virginia)
Age: 52 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Compliance will be more demanding, increasing pressure and costs for both us and the companies we oversee.
- Long-term, it may streamline the process once new standards are set.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Environmental Scientist (Illinois)
Age: 34 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about the environmental footprint of increasing rare earth production in the US.
- The policy must include environmental safeguards.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Supply Chain Specialist in Tech Industry (New York)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 6.0 years
Commonness: 13/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Finding new suppliers could delay projects, but ultimately it might lead to more stable sourcing.
- The shift could prompt innovations or alternatives to rare earths.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Economics Professor (Kansas)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Diversifying and securing rare earth supply chains is crucial for economic security.
- Short-term disruptions are likely, but the benefits could be significant.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Small Business Owner in Component Manufacturing (Ohio)
Age: 39 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could drive up material costs, affecting our bottom line.
- However, it might also create new business opportunities domestically.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Mining Engineer (Nevada)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- There is a big opportunity here to expand our operations and influence in the global market.
- With government support, we could ramp up quickly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 8 |
Logistics Coordinator (Florida)
Age: 44 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Changing routes and suppliers could cause delays and increased costs.
- However, it may also lead to more efficient and secure logistics domestically.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $500000000 (Low: $400000000, High: $600000000)
Year 2: $300000000 (Low: $250000000, High: $350000000)
Year 3: $250000000 (Low: $200000000, High: $300000000)
Year 5: $200000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $250000000)
Year 10: $100000000 (Low: $75000000, High: $125000000)
Year 100: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)
Key Considerations
- Potential for escalating trade tensions with China in response to reduced dependence on Chinese rare earth metals.
- Uncertainty in domestic industry's capacity to meet defense contractors' demands without Chinese sources.
- Potential technological innovations or improvements could alter baseline assumptions regarding costs and savings.