Bill Overview
Title: Deterring Authoritarian Hostilities Act of 2022
Description: This bill imposes sanctions pertaining to Russia and addresses related issues. The President must impose property-blocking sanctions with respect to Nord Stream 2 AG, the entity that operates the Nord Stream 2 pipeline designed to carry natural gas exports from Russia to Germany. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence must periodically report to Congress an assessment of whether Russia's government (or any foreign person acting on its behalf) has engaged in acts infringing on Ukraine's territorial integrity. If such an act has occurred, the President must impose visa- and property-blocking sanctions on certain foreign persons, including (1) any person operating in certain sectors of Russia's economy, including energy and finance; and (2) the President of Russia and other senior Russian government leaders. If such sanctions are imposed, the Department of the Treasury must report to Congress on efforts to ensure that Russia's central bank and persons subject to the sanctions have been blocked from the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) financial messaging system. After this report, the President may impose sanctions on any financial communications services provider that has not blocked Russia's central bank and persons sanctioned under this bill from its service. Treasury must prohibit transactions by a U.S. person in the debt of Russia's government issued on or after this bill's enactment. The President may terminate sanctions imposed under this bill if Russia withdraws its military forces from Ukraine and makes credible commitments to not engage in such hostile actions in the future.
Sponsors: Sen. Rubio, Marco [R-FL]
Target Audience
Population: People involved in or affected by sanctions on Russian economic sectors
Estimated Size: 10000000
- The bill targets individuals and entities related to the Russian government, particularly those involved with or operating within Russia's energy and financial sectors.
- The application of sanctions, including property-blocking and visa restrictions, directly affects those operating the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, as well as other key sectors of the Russian economy.
- Sanctions against individuals, including the President of Russia and senior government officials, aim to pressure the Russian government to cease hostile actions towards Ukraine.
- Secondary impacts include the individuals and businesses indirectly affected by restrictions on financial transactions with sanctioned entities, especially through mechanisms like SWIFT.
- The actions could impact the global energy market due to restricted natural gas flows from Russia to Europe, specifically Germany, affecting both consumer prices and energy security.
- United States citizens may feel impacts through broader economic repercussions associated with sanctions, such as fluctuations in global markets that may affect investments and consumer prices, especially in energy.
Reasoning
- The impact of sanctions on Russia can have diverse effects on U.S. citizens, ranging from those involved in financial transactions to general consumers facing shifts in energy prices.
- The target population in the U.S. is quite broad, potentially influencing investors in Russian markets, stakeholders in energy sectors, and everyday consumers.
- For an effective simulation, we must include a mixture of people directly affected by financial restrictions, those in energy sector roles, and indirect impacts on consumers from changes in global market dynamics.
- Given the relatively modest budget allocation compared to the broad economic impact, individual-level well-being changes could often be subtle but persist over a lengthy duration, affecting evaluations over 20 years.
- Most individuals in the U.S. might perceive economic changes indirectly, as the immediate sanctions targets are foreign entities linked to the Russian economy.
Simulated Interviews
Financial Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 35 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions could affect my company as it involves Russian markets, leading to potential changes in financial strategies.
- I'm concerned about potential energy price hikes affecting consumer spending.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Energy Sector Worker (Houston, TX)
Age: 42 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions could impact natural gas prices and subsequently our business operations.
- There's uncertainty about long-term job security with current projects relying on Russian gas.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Investment Advisor (Chicago, IL)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 16/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Advising clients has been tricky with the uncertainty about sanctions.
- Some clients are worried about potential losses in energy investments.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Tech Entrepreneur (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sanctions might increase interest in alternative energy sources, which could benefit my business.
- There's an increase in the demand for local energy solutions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 10 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 10 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 9 |
Policy Analyst (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 62 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions increase diplomatic tensions, requiring ongoing analysis.
- They could potentially change the energy landscape globally.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Small Business Owner (Miami, FL)
Age: 47 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 13/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about price increases on gas products that might affect my business negatively.
- We may need to find alternative suppliers if prices soar.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Social Media Manager (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 34 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 8.0 years
Commonness: 17/20
Statement of Opinion:
- A fallout could mean less business with international clients affected by Russian sanctions.
- There might be opportunities to expand in regions less impacted.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
University Researcher (Boulder, CO)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This situation might push for more research funding into renewables.
- There are increasing discussions on energy independence in my field.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 10 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 10 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 10 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 9 |
Freelance Journalist (Seattle, WA)
Age: 38 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 8.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions provide material for significant reporting on international politics.
- There are concerns about stagnation in energy security talks.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Public School Teacher (Chicago, IL)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 20/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions are a good case study for my classes on economic impact.
- There is an educational opportunity to discuss real-world implications.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)
Year 2: $35000000 (Low: $28000000, High: $42000000)
Year 3: $35000000 (Low: $28000000, High: $42000000)
Year 5: $35000000 (Low: $28000000, High: $42000000)
Year 10: $35000000 (Low: $28000000, High: $42000000)
Year 100: $35000000 (Low: $28000000, High: $42000000)
Key Considerations
- The volatility in global energy markets could have cascading effects on U.S. energy prices, affecting consumers.
- Maintaining sanctions rigorously could strain diplomatic relations and require international cooperation.