Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/3468

Bill Overview

Title: A bill to provide for a limitation on the removal of the Government of Cuba from the state sponsors of terrorism list.

Description: This bill prohibits rescinding the designation of Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism without Congressional approval. Specifically, before rescinding the designation, the President must certify to Congress that Cuba (1) is cooperating with U.S. antiterrorism efforts, (2) has ceased providing support for international terrorism, (3) has rendered to the United States all persons sought by the Department of Justice for crimes committed in the United States, and (4) has ceased providing support to the regime of former President Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela. Furthermore, the designation may not be rescinded unless a joint resolution from Congress approving the President's certification is enacted.

Sponsors: Sen. Risch, James E. [R-ID]

Target Audience

Population: Individuals in Cuba or with interests in U.S.-Cuba relations

Estimated Size: 2300000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Small business owner (Miami, FL)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could make travel to visit my family in Cuba more complicated.
  • I hope this doesn't cause additional issues with sending goods to my relatives in Cuba.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 7 8

Travel agency manager (Houston, TX)

Age: 30 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy might make it harder to sell travel packages to Cuba, affecting our business.
  • It's important for the U.S. to hold countries accountable for international behavior.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Policy analyst (Washington, D.C.)

Age: 63 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This bill is a critical move in maintaining pressure on Cuba.
  • Congress needs to play a role in these decisions to ensure accountability.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

International trade consultant (New York, NY)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Policy could complicate trade dynamics, leading to potential job concerns.
  • Balancing firm stances with economic engagement is tricky.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 9

Retired teacher (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 55 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 6.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Policies like this could negatively affect our community's family connections.
  • We need to work towards reconciliation, not division.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 6 8
Year 20 7 8

Financial advisor (Tampa, FL)

Age: 39 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy maintains uncertainty for investors eyeing Cuba.
  • Stability and clear policy would make advisories easier.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 9

Political advocate (Chicago, IL)

Age: 42 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • We must push the U.S. to reconsider designations that hinder progress.
  • Policies like these prevent much-needed open dialogues.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 7
Year 20 6 8

Agricultural exporter (Atlanta, GA)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy creates challenges in securing stable export contracts with Cuban partners.
  • Clarity in policy would allow for better business planning.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 9 9

Graduate student (Boston, MA)

Age: 26 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's intriguing to see how such policies can shape international perceptions.
  • I hope to study the impacts of such US policies on Cuba's economic situation further.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Restaurant owner (Newark, NJ)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This could limit the exchange of Cuban culinary innovations with my restaurant.
  • Tourism from Cuban-Americans is part of my business, policies matter to them.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 7 8

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $2000000 (Low: $1000000, High: $3000000)

Year 2: $2000000 (Low: $1000000, High: $3000000)

Year 3: $2000000 (Low: $1000000, High: $3000000)

Year 5: $2000000 (Low: $1000000, High: $3000000)

Year 10: $2000000 (Low: $1000000, High: $3000000)

Year 100: $2000000 (Low: $1000000, High: $3000000)

Key Considerations