Bill Overview
Title: A bill to provide for a limitation on the removal of the Government of Cuba from the state sponsors of terrorism list.
Description: This bill prohibits rescinding the designation of Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism without Congressional approval. Specifically, before rescinding the designation, the President must certify to Congress that Cuba (1) is cooperating with U.S. antiterrorism efforts, (2) has ceased providing support for international terrorism, (3) has rendered to the United States all persons sought by the Department of Justice for crimes committed in the United States, and (4) has ceased providing support to the regime of former President Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela. Furthermore, the designation may not be rescinded unless a joint resolution from Congress approving the President's certification is enacted.
Sponsors: Sen. Risch, James E. [R-ID]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals in Cuba or with interests in U.S.-Cuba relations
Estimated Size: 2300000
- The bill addresses the international status of Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism, so it impacts those interested or affected by U.S.-Cuba relations.
- The legislation influences U.S. foreign policy towards Cuba, thus affecting Cuban citizens who might experience changes in diplomatic or economic conditions.
- Cuba's current designation as a state sponsor of terrorism affects travel, trade, and aid, thus impacting businesses involved in international trade and tourism sectors.
- The continuation or removal of this designation can impact Cuban-Americans who may have family ties or business interests in Cuba, particularly regarding travel and communication.
- Foreign nations and international businesses interacting with Cuba may have their engagements shaped by such U.S. legislative decisions.
Reasoning
- The policy specifically affects U.S.-Cuba relations, so it impacts those interested or affected by these relations, including Cuban-Americans who have family ties or trade interests in Cuba.
- Estimated over 2 million Cuban-Americans could be directly impacted by this policy, primarily due to possible changes in family travel and communication with Cuba.
- Businesses involved in travel or export to Cuba might see changes in their operations depending on the outcome of this policy change.
- Political and advocacy groups focusing on Cuba-related issues will have strong opinions on the policy's impact.
- The immediate financial resources required for implementing such a specific foreign policy bill are limited, suggesting the immediate domestic financial impact is minimal.
Simulated Interviews
Small business owner (Miami, FL)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could make travel to visit my family in Cuba more complicated.
- I hope this doesn't cause additional issues with sending goods to my relatives in Cuba.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Travel agency manager (Houston, TX)
Age: 30 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy might make it harder to sell travel packages to Cuba, affecting our business.
- It's important for the U.S. to hold countries accountable for international behavior.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Policy analyst (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 63 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This bill is a critical move in maintaining pressure on Cuba.
- Congress needs to play a role in these decisions to ensure accountability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
International trade consultant (New York, NY)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policy could complicate trade dynamics, leading to potential job concerns.
- Balancing firm stances with economic engagement is tricky.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Retired teacher (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 6.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policies like this could negatively affect our community's family connections.
- We need to work towards reconciliation, not division.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Financial advisor (Tampa, FL)
Age: 39 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy maintains uncertainty for investors eyeing Cuba.
- Stability and clear policy would make advisories easier.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Political advocate (Chicago, IL)
Age: 42 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- We must push the U.S. to reconsider designations that hinder progress.
- Policies like these prevent much-needed open dialogues.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 8 |
Agricultural exporter (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy creates challenges in securing stable export contracts with Cuban partners.
- Clarity in policy would allow for better business planning.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Graduate student (Boston, MA)
Age: 26 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's intriguing to see how such policies can shape international perceptions.
- I hope to study the impacts of such US policies on Cuba's economic situation further.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Restaurant owner (Newark, NJ)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could limit the exchange of Cuban culinary innovations with my restaurant.
- Tourism from Cuban-Americans is part of my business, policies matter to them.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $2000000 (Low: $1000000, High: $3000000)
Year 2: $2000000 (Low: $1000000, High: $3000000)
Year 3: $2000000 (Low: $1000000, High: $3000000)
Year 5: $2000000 (Low: $1000000, High: $3000000)
Year 10: $2000000 (Low: $1000000, High: $3000000)
Year 100: $2000000 (Low: $1000000, High: $3000000)
Key Considerations
- The bill affects U.S. foreign policy, which might have economic and political repercussions that are difficult to quantify.
- There are existing sanctions and laws surrounding U.S.-Cuba relations that contribute to the cost and savings estimates under current conditions.
- This bill maintains the status quo, thus any significant fiscal impacts are only anticipated if the designation status changes.