Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/3464

Bill Overview

Title: National Right-to-Work Act

Description: This bill repeals those provisions of the National Labor Relations Act and the Railway Labor Act that permit employers to make an agreement with a labor union to require employees to join such union as a condition of employment. Currently, 28 states have enacted laws prohibiting employers from compelling employees to become members of a union as a condition of employment.

Sponsors: Sen. Paul, Rand [R-KY]

Target Audience

Population: Workers who could be subject to compulsory union membership

Estimated Size: 5000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Factory Worker (Michigan)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I value the job security and benefits that my union provides.
  • I'm worried that removing compulsory membership will weaken our bargaining power.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 5 7
Year 5 5 7
Year 10 4 6
Year 20 3 5

Public School Teacher (California)

Age: 34 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The union has been instrumental in securing better pay and classroom conditions.
  • I'm concerned that a weakened union could negatively affect education quality.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 6 8
Year 3 5 8
Year 5 5 8
Year 10 4 7
Year 20 3 6

Retail Worker (Kentucky)

Age: 29 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 18/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I've never had to join a union here, but I appreciate having the choice.
  • I'm mostly neutral about this change as it doesn't directly apply here.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Construction Worker (New York)

Age: 52 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm very concerned about this policy. Our union has fought hard for safety standards and wages.
  • I fear this will lead to decreased worker protections.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 4 6
Year 3 4 6
Year 5 3 6
Year 10 2 5
Year 20 2 5

Healthcare Worker (Texas)

Age: 41 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 16/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I want the option to join a union to negotiate better work conditions.
  • If joining is truly optional, I support giving people that choice.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Automotive Technician (Ohio)

Age: 37 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Without compulsory membership, fewer members may weaken our benefits.
  • I rely heavily on the union for my healthcare needs.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 4 5
Year 3 4 5
Year 5 3 5
Year 10 2 5
Year 20 2 5

Software Developer (Florida)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 20/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This really doesn’t impact me in my field.
  • I hope it doesn't lead to broader workforce issues.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Retired Teacher (Illinois)

Age: 63 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • During my career, unions played a critical role in support and negotiations.
  • I worry about the future of new teachers without strong unions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 6 8
Year 5 6 8
Year 10 5 8
Year 20 4 8

Logistics Manager (Georgia)

Age: 39 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 13/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think this policy could encourage unions to be more service-focused.
  • I'm curious about how it impacts labor relations and competition.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 5 6
Year 10 5 6
Year 20 4 6

Postal Worker (New Jersey)

Age: 50 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Our union has helped maintain fair wages. Losing membership could hurt negotiations.
  • I am concerned about possible privatization.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 4 6
Year 5 4 6
Year 10 3 5
Year 20 3 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $30000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $50000000)

Year 2: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)

Year 3: $10000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $15000000)

Year 5: $5000000 (Low: $2000000, High: $10000000)

Year 10: $2000000 (Low: $1000000, High: $5000000)

Year 100: $1000000 (Low: $500000, High: $3000000)

Key Considerations