Bill Overview
Title: COVID Act of 2022
Description: This bill requires the President to impose sanctions and take other actions related to COVID-19 if certain conditions are not met. Specifically, if the President is unable to certify within 90 days of this bill's enactment that China's government has allowed a transparent international forensic investigation into the origins of COVID-19 and certain laboratories in the city of Wuhan, the President must impose visa- and property-blocking sanctions against (1) individuals with leadership positions in the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS); and (2) officials of the Chinese Communist Party, China's military, or China's State Council who were involved in concealing or restricting information about the initial COVID-19 outbreak in China. If the certification cannot be made, the President must also (1) prohibit federal funding for collaborative projects between U.S.-based researchers and CAS researchers in any academic field, and (2) prohibit U.S.-based researchers and institutions that receive federal funding from engaging in certain research on viruses with individuals or institutions based in China.
Sponsors: Sen. Rubio, Marco [R-FL]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals involved in U.S.-China scientific collaborations and Chinese officials targeted by sanctions
Estimated Size: 660000
- The bill primarily targets Chinese individuals in leadership positions with the Chinese Academy of Sciences and officials from the Chinese Communist Party and China's military, thus directly impacting them.
- Sanctions could also affect the broader Chinese population by creating diplomatic tensions and potential economic repercussions, although this is indirect.
- A secondary population affected includes U.S.-based researchers collaborating with Chinese institutions, specifically with the CAS.
- The prohibition on federal funding for collaborative projects between U.S.-based and CAS researchers in any academic field directly impacts the academic and scientific community.
- Further, U.S.-based researchers and institutions that receive federal funding and are involved in virus research with counterparts in China are affected.
Reasoning
- The population distribution needs to be considered as the largest impact may occur among academic researchers, specifically those engaged in virus research collaborations with China. This might involve around 44% of all such researchers, based on estimates of international collaboration figures.
- The budget constraint means that while the impact is sizable for those directly involved, the wellbeing impact may be more indirect for the general U.S. population.
- It's important to simulate a variety of individuals, including those not directly involved but potentially affected by ripple effects through changes in research funding or international relations.
Simulated Interviews
Virologist Professor (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about the new restrictions as my research heavily relies on collaborations with Chinese labs.
- These sanctions could derail years of progress in understanding viral mechanisms.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Biotech Firm Executive (Chicago, IL)
Age: 36 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could negatively affect our operations as some of our research partnerships are based in China.
- I'm worried about increased operational costs and potential market losses.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 9 |
Senior Research Scientist (New York, NY)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Our ongoing projects might face severe setbacks if collaborations are halted.
- I'm particularly worried about the loss of innovation potential due to this policy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 10 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 10 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 10 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 10 |
Postdoctoral Researcher (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I fear this policy could hinder my career growth opportunities.
- The restrictions could reduce funding and collaboration opportunities that are vital for early career researchers.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Healthcare Policy Analyst (Houston, TX)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about the trickle-down effects of the policy on global health priorities.
- It may lead to potential isolation in health research funding and collaborations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Professor of International Relations (Boston, MA)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could strain U.S.-China relations, affecting diplomatic negotiations.
- While it targets a specific issue, the broader ramifications must be considered.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Retired Corporate Lawyer (Philadelphia, PA)
Age: 68 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy doesn't directly affect me, but I worry about its implications on international cooperation.
- Such geopolitical moves can lead to long-term diplomatic challenges.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Undergraduate Student (Miami, FL)
Age: 22 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I find this policy relevant to my studies as it highlights international political tactics.
- It inspires me to think about how international law is crafted.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
IT Specialist (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 47 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This doesn't directly impact my life, but I'm curious about how it might influence tech relations between the U.S. and China.
- I hope it doesn't affect the global tech supply chain negatively.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Public Health Official (Seattle, WA)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy won't directly change my work, but any disruptions in international research can have broader public health implications.
- I worry about setbacks in global preparedness and data sharing.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $70000000 (Low: $50000000, High: $100000000)
Year 2: $60000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $90000000)
Year 3: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $80000000)
Year 5: $45000000 (Low: $35000000, High: $70000000)
Year 10: $40000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $60000000)
Year 100: $20000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $30000000)
Key Considerations
- Sanctions implementation cost versus the potential geopolitical benefits.
- Impact on the academic community and scientific progress due to restricted collaborations.
- Long-term strategic implications on international relations and scientific partnerships.
- Need to assess potential retaliation from China that could impact U.S. interests.