Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/3052

Bill Overview

Title: Cambodia Democracy and Human Rights Act of 2022

Description: This bill directs the President to impose sanctions on foreign persons (i.e., entities and individuals) responsible for acts to undermine democracy in Cambodia, including acts that constitute serious human rights violations and acts to support the establishment of facilities in Cambodia that could be used by China's military. The sanctions shall be directed at foreign persons, including current or former Cambodian government, military, and security forces officials, responsible for such actions, as well as entities controlled or owned by such persons. The sanctions shall include blocking the assets of sanctioned persons and restricting the entry of sanctioned individuals into the United States, and shall not apply to the importation of goods. The President may waive the sanctions with respect to a person if it is in the national interest of the United States. The President may suspend the sanctions if Cambodia makes meaningful progress toward ending government efforts to undermine democracy, ending human rights violations, and meeting other specified conditions. The President must report to Congress on the presence of China's military in Cambodia, including the involvement of China's military in upgrading or constructing certain facilities in Cambodia.

Sponsors: Sen. Markey, Edward J. [D-MA]

Target Audience

Population: People responsible for undermining democracy and human rights in Cambodia

Estimated Size: 50

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

International Trade Lawyer (Washington D.C.)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The sanctions could lead to increased compliance work as companies will need to ensure they aren't violating any new regulations.
  • I don't expect personal wellbeing changes, but work could become more hectic.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 5 6
Year 20 5 5

Human Rights Activist (New York)

Age: 34 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This is a step in the right direction towards holding governments accountable.
  • I feel more hopeful that international pressure can lead to change in Cambodia.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 10 7
Year 20 10 6

Entrepreneur (California)

Age: 59 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • These sanctions could really affect my business if it impacts shipping lanes or partners.
  • I worry about potential loss of revenue and needing to find new supply chains.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

University Student (Boston)

Age: 22 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I support the policy if it means greater human rights protections.
  • It's inspiring to see the U.S. take a strong stance on these issues.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 9 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 9 8

NGO Worker (Texas)

Age: 40 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This could limit some individuals from seeking asylum if they are misidentified as oppressive by their association.
  • I am concerned about the unintended impacts.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 8 6

Diplomat (retired) (New York)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This provides a useful diplomatic tool for U.S. negotiations and international leverage.
  • I believe effective sanctions can enforce changes in foreign governance practices.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Corporate Executive (Miami)

Age: 46 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Any disruptions from the policy need to be planned for in corporate strategy, though I don't foresee major impacts.
  • Monitoring political risks is part of my job and this is no different.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Tech Developer (San Francisco)

Age: 30 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The political landscape in Asia is crucial for tech innovation and export restrictions can complicate connections.
  • Blockchain can offer transparency solutions that help circumvent some governmental overreach.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 9
Year 2 9 9
Year 3 9 9
Year 5 9 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 9

Retired Military (Oregon)

Age: 65 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Sanctions need strategic application to avoid collateral damage, something I'm wary of.
  • Military presence information from China and Cambodia is vital; this policy might help bring clarity.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Journalist (Nebraska)

Age: 27 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • More attention to Cambodia's political situation is necessary, but sanctions must come with engagement.
  • It's a topic I plan to cover extensively regardless of official actions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $5000000 (Low: $4000000, High: $6000000)

Year 2: $5000000 (Low: $4000000, High: $6000000)

Year 3: $5000000 (Low: $4000000, High: $6000000)

Year 5: $5000000 (Low: $4000000, High: $6000000)

Year 10: $4000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $5000000)

Year 100: $1000000 (Low: $500000, High: $1500000)

Key Considerations