Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/9702

Bill Overview

Title: To amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to allow deductions and credits relating to expenditures in connection with marijuana sales conducted in compliance with State law.

Description: This bill exempts a trade or business that conducts marijuana sales in compliance with state law from a provision in the Internal Revenue Code that prohibits business-related tax credits or deductions for expenditures in connection with trafficking in controlled substances.

Sponsors: Rep. Mace, Nancy [R-SC-1]

Target Audience

Population: People involved in the legal marijuana industry

Estimated Size: 5000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Dispensary Owner (Denver, CO)

Age: 39 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think this policy could really help us expand. With tax relief, I'd have more budget to reinvest and hire more staff.
  • It feels like a step towards normalizing marijuana as a legitimate business, which is encouraging.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 7

marijuana Marketing Coordinator (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Great to see some progress, but I wonder if it will directly impact my role aside from maybe job security.
  • If the company thrives, I might see a promotion or raise, eventually.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 5

marijuana Cultivator (Seattle, WA)

Age: 47 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Tax deductions can really help us manage costs, considering how tight our margins are right now.
  • This might finally give cultivators a break and allow for better growth opportunities.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 8 7

marijuana Legal Advisor (Portland, OR)

Age: 34 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This change makes my job interesting, as I help clients navigate new tax benefits.
  • While I may not be directly impacted monetarily, the policy opens more avenues for advising.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Barista (Chicago, IL)

Age: 23 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I don't think this will affect my life much, maybe some people around here will have more spending money.
  • I guess the cafes might see slightly more business if their customers have more to spend.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Accountant (Boston, MA)

Age: 52 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Good move. It'll simplify tax logistics for clients and increase the growth potential of those businesses.
  • I'd expect a more streamlined approach to managing finances with definite tax benefits.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Retired Educator (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 60 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think every piece that helps normalize and legislate properly can make societal impacts.
  • Living so close to these businesses, this could shape local community funding from taxes.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 6

marijuana Retail Manager (Phoenix, AZ)

Age: 42 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • A welcome relief! The reduced tax burden means we have more leverage over pricing and development.
  • I'm optimistic about adding new locations now which was uncertain before.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 8 7

Budtender (Las Vegas, NV)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Hopefully, it leads to pay raises if our store does well. More disposable income for customers would be nice too.
  • Job security is always nice to have, and this policy might help.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

City Council Member (Reno, NV)

Age: 64 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Policies like these can bolster local economies, ensuring that businesses keep more of their profits for growth.
  • This could create a ripple effect for increased community investments.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 7 7

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $980000000 (Low: $800000000, High: $1200000000)

Year 2: $1020000000 (Low: $850000000, High: $1250000000)

Year 3: $1060000000 (Low: $900000000, High: $1300000000)

Year 5: $1120000000 (Low: $950000000, High: $1380000000)

Year 10: $1250000000 (Low: $1100000000, High: $1500000000)

Year 100: $1800000000 (Low: $1600000000, High: $2000000000)

Key Considerations