Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/9701

Bill Overview

Title: Welfare Reform Act of 2022

Description: This bill directs the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to establish a program to convey certain federal land to individuals who permanently waive eligibility for certain welfare programs. The BLM shall have final discretion as to the allocation of land to such individuals but must provide them with a means to express their preference for available land, including whether the land will be used for residential or agricultural purposes. The bill prohibits the sale of the land for a 10-year period.

Sponsors: Rep. Gohmert, Louie [R-TX-1]

Target Audience

Population: People eligible for certain welfare programs who may choose to exchange benefits for land under the Welfare Reform Act of 2022

Estimated Size: 60000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Unemployed (Rural Arizona)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I like the idea of having our own land, but I'm worried about giving up benefits.
  • It might be hard for me to work the land on my own, especially with young kids.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 4
Year 2 5 4
Year 3 6 4
Year 5 6 4
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 6 5

Construction Worker (Suburban Ohio)

Age: 38 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The land would be a great opportunity for my family.
  • I'm concerned about losing housing support in exchange.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Student (Urban New York)

Age: 24 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm not interested in land; I need to focus on my studies and city life.
  • Without the program, I wouldn't trade my benefits.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Farmer (Rural Texas)

Age: 52 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • With extra land, I could really increase my farm's productivity.
  • I don't use welfare benefits as much, so it's a good trade for me.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 8 7

Stay-at-home mom (Semi-rural Kansas)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Trading benefits for land sounds risky but could be rewarding long-term.
  • I'm unsure if we can afford to maintain more land right now.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Retired (Urban California)

Age: 60 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Managing land at my age isn't appealing, I prefer stability from my benefits.
  • This policy doesn't seem beneficial to me.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Freelancer (Rural Alabama)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I am drawn to the idea of living off-grid and owning land.
  • Giving up benefits is a big decision but I feel it might be worth it.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 4
Year 2 6 4
Year 3 7 4
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 9 5
Year 20 8 6

Retail Worker (Urban Illinois)

Age: 34 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I prefer living in the city; land outside isn't suitable for me.
  • The land offer doesn't compensate my need for city jobs and lifestyle.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Teacher's Assistant (Suburban Georgia)

Age: 40 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Owning a piece of land may help our family secure a future.
  • But managing the land might take time away from my job.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Homemaker (Rural Wyoming)

Age: 27 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 3

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This could be our chance to start a small farm.
  • We'd need to carefully consider losing our current welfare support.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 3
Year 2 5 3
Year 3 6 3
Year 5 7 4
Year 10 8 4
Year 20 7 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $150000000 (Low: $120000000, High: $180000000)

Year 2: $145000000 (Low: $115000000, High: $175000000)

Year 3: $140000000 (Low: $110000000, High: $170000000)

Year 5: $135000000 (Low: $105000000, High: $165000000)

Year 10: $125000000 (Low: $95000000, High: $155000000)

Year 100: $100000000 (Low: $75000000, High: $125000000)

Key Considerations