Bill Overview
Title: Taiwan Status Diplomacy Act
Description: This bill directs the Department of State to issue a legal opinion detailing the reasoning supporting the position of the United States regarding Taiwan's sovereignty and U.S. nonrecognition of China's territorial claim over Taiwan. The State Department must also conduct diplomatic efforts to inform and persuade countries of the legal reasoning supporting the position of the United States regarding Taiwan's status.
Sponsors: Rep. Chabot, Steve [R-OH-1]
Target Audience
Population: People of Taiwan and China
Estimated Size: 1000000
- Taiwan's population is approximately 23.4 million people. These are directly impacted as their international status is being discussed.
- Any changes in international diplomacy can affect trade, security, and international relations which indirectly affect global populations.
- International diplomatic stance by the US could influence global opinions and policies towards Taiwan.
- China's population could also be concerned as Taiwan is regarded as part of Chinese territory by their government.
Reasoning
- The policy does not have a direct budget impact on individual citizens, so interviews should focus on indirect effects through diplomatic, economic, and social channels.
- The target population in the US consists majorly of individuals of Taiwanese descent and those involved in international relations, such as policy makers and defense sector professionals.
- The impact on average US citizens may range from none to low, depending on their awareness and involvement in international politics and economic dependencies.
Simulated Interviews
Software Engineer (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 35 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I am concerned about Taiwan's status and relations with the US.
- I hope this policy strengthens recognition of Taiwan.
- Diplomatic decisions might impact my family's well-being in Taiwan.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
Foreign Policy Analyst (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 42 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy is crucial for reinforcing Taiwan's position globally.
- It might lead to increased tensions with China, which could impact global markets.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
Marketing Specialist (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 30 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I don't see any direct personal impact from this policy.
- Perhaps it affects global tech industry tensions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Business Owner (New York, NY)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I need stable US-Taiwan relations for my business.
- Uncertainty due to increased diplomatic tension can affect my supply chain.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 3 |
Student (Houston, TX)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Understanding international diplomacy is crucial in my field of study.
- This policy might set a precedent in international law.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Retired, Former Military Officer (Chicago, IL)
Age: 63 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- US foreign policy in Asia is critical for regional stability.
- This policy could balance power regarding China.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 4 |
Research Scientist (Boston, MA)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Strong US-Taiwan ties are beneficial for scientific collaboration.
- Increased tensions might risk partnerships.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Tech Entrepreneur (Seattle, WA)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I am hopeful this policy opens new business avenues.
- Uncertainty in China's response is a concern.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Public School Teacher (Austin, TX)
Age: 37 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 18/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policies like this are important educational topics.
- I doubt there will be any major direct impact on my job.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Retired Economist (Miami, FL)
Age: 75 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy's success hinges on coherent global strategy.
- Potential trade impacts must be considered carefully.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $25000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $30000000)
Year 2: $25000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $30000000)
Year 3: $25000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $30000000)
Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- Potential international backlash or support could have broader economic or security implications beyond direct fiscal costs.
- Diplomatic success or failure could alter US strategic positioning in Asia.