Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/9624

Bill Overview

Title: Gun Violence Prevention and Community Safety Act of 2022

Description: This bill makes various changes to the federal framework governing the sale, transfer, and possession of firearms and ammunition. Among other changes, the bill generally requires individuals to obtain a license to purchase, acquire, or possess a firearm or ammunition; raises the minimum age—from 18 years to 21 years—to purchase firearms and ammunition; establishes new background check requirements for firearm transfers between private parties; creates a statutory process for a family or household member to petition a court for an extreme risk protection order to remove firearms from an individual who poses a risk of committing violence; restricts the import, sale, manufacture, transfer, or possession of semiautomatic assault weapons and large capacity ammunition feeding devices; restricts the manufacture, sale, transfer, purchase, or receipt of ghost guns (i.e., guns without serial numbers); requires federally licensed gun dealers to submit and annually certify compliance with a security plan to detect and deter firearm theft; removes limitations on the civil liability of gun manufacturers; allows the Consumer Product Safety Commission to issue safety standards for firearms and firearm components; establishes a community violence intervention grant program; and promotes research on firearms safety and gun violence prevention.

Sponsors: Rep. Johnson, Henry C. "Hank," Jr. [D-GA-4]

Target Audience

Population: people affected by legislation on firearms

Estimated Size: 106000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Gun Shop Owner (Texas)

Age: 25 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The increased regulation might make it harder for my business to survive.
  • I understand the safety concerns, but the compliance and security demands are costly.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 6 8
Year 20 7 7

Community Organizer (New York)

Age: 38 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy is a step in the right direction for reducing community violence.
  • The community grant program could really help us fund preventive initiatives.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 8 4
Year 10 9 4
Year 20 9 3

College Student (Florida)

Age: 19 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm frustrated that I can't purchase firearms until I'm 21 now.
  • I get the intention, but it feels like my rights are being limited.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 9
Year 10 6 9
Year 20 5 8

Gun Manufacturer Executive (Illinois)

Age: 54 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This legislation may put us at risk of increased lawsuits which is concerning.
  • Safety is important, but the increased oversight and liability are challenging.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 9
Year 10 6 8
Year 20 6 9

Researcher (California)

Age: 29 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's exciting to see research being promoted by this policy.
  • Finally, there seems to be a federal push towards evidence-based interventions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 9 6
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 10 7

Police Officer (Ohio)

Age: 46 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The risk protection orders could potentially help us intervene before violence occurs.
  • This policy might make my community safer, but we need public cooperation.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 9 5
Year 20 9 5

High School Teacher (Georgia)

Age: 34 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Raising the age for gun purchases is a good idea for the safety of the youth.
  • I hope this leads to better safety at schools, but more community input is needed.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 7 7

Firearms Enthusiast (Pennsylvania)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I worry that this policy infringes on my rights as a law-abiding citizen.
  • Some measures might help reduce crime, but it feels like overreach in daily life.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 6 9
Year 3 6 9
Year 5 6 9
Year 10 6 9
Year 20 5 8

Retired (Michigan)

Age: 64 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm thankful for any policy that can prevent stories like mine from happening.
  • This might increase public safety, but we need to ensure effective enforcement.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 8 5
Year 5 8 4
Year 10 9 4
Year 20 9 3

Small Business Owner (Nevada)

Age: 32 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I understand the need for regulations, but it could hit my shop's bottom line.
  • We may have to adapt, perhaps diversify more of our offerings.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 6 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 8 7

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $1500000000 (Low: $1200000000, High: $1800000000)

Year 2: $1500000000 (Low: $1200000000, High: $1800000000)

Year 3: $1600000000 (Low: $1250000000, High: $1900000000)

Year 5: $1600000000 (Low: $1250000000, High: $1900000000)

Year 10: $1700000000 (Low: $1400000000, High: $2000000000)

Year 100: $1700000000 (Low: $1400000000, High: $2100000000)

Key Considerations