Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/9606

Bill Overview

Title: REGIME Act of 2022

Description: The bill requires the Department of State to conduct a review of certain Iranian officials and government employees, as well as their immediate family members, who currently have visas or who have applied for visas. If such individuals are determined to be ineligible for entry into the United States under specified laws, the State Department must revoke their visas.

Sponsors: Rep. Wilson, Joe [R-SC-2]

Target Audience

Population: Iranian officials, government employees, and their immediate family members with visas or visa applications to the U.S.

Estimated Size: 100

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

University Professor (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy seems rather targeted and won't affect many people, but it could strain U.S.-Iran relations further.
  • I worry about colleagues and students who might have family caught up in unnecessary complications.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 8 9

Financial Analyst (New York, NY)

Age: 52 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think it's unfair to target officials' families, many who have no involvement in government activities.
  • It might create anxiety for those with mixed nationalities.
  • As a binational, I feel the pressure this adds to the U.S.-Iran relationship.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 4 5
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 6 7
Year 20 7 8

Medical Resident (Houston, TX)

Age: 31 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm worried because my parents might be affected. Our plans could face disruptions if their visas are rejected or revoked.
  • The policy is very specific and could create unnecessary tension.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 6
Year 2 5 7
Year 3 5 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 7 8

Software Engineer (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 27 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I've heard discussions of this policy at work but not sure how directly it impacts me since my visa isn't political.
  • Seems like it won't have widespread impact beyond the specific people it's targeting.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 9

Restaurant Owner (Chicago, IL)

Age: 35 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy feels unnecessarily punitive towards families who have no direct involvement in policy or governmental decisions.
  • It definitely causes anxiety among the Iranian community here.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 7
Year 5 6 8
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 8 9

Policy Analyst (Washington, D.C.)

Age: 29 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • From a policy perspective, this is a narrow approach that could trigger diplomatic backlash.
  • I do notice the nervousness it creates among friends with direct ties to Iran.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 8 9
Year 5 8 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 10

Real Estate Agent (Miami, FL)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Our travel plans to the U.S. might be halted completely if the policy impacts our visas.
  • There's definite concern for families like mine who have members involved in state companies.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 7
Year 2 5 8
Year 3 6 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 8 9

Dentist (Atlanta, GA)

Age: 55 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm unsure how this might affect my children's study plans here in the U.S.
  • The measure seems to paint Iranian officials and family with a broad brush, which isn't fair.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 8 8

Entrepreneur (Seattle, WA)

Age: 38 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I fear heightened scrutiny in my travels and business dealings because of this policy.
  • It feels like a burden even without direct impact on me.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 8 9

Retired (Boston, MA)

Age: 62 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • At my age, I'm more concerned for my grandchildren and how this affects their perception of identity.
  • It's a small policy but feels like a big weight on Iranians in the diaspora.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 8 9

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $8000000)

Year 2: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 3: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Key Considerations