Bill Overview
Title: Taiwan Protection and National Resilience Act of 2022
Description: This bill requires the Department of Defense to submit a report identifying goods and services from the United States that China relies upon and U.S. military procurement practices that are reliant on trade with China. The bill also requires the Department of the Treasury to submit a sanctions strategy that could, in response to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan (1) limit China's ability to acquire petroleum and military materiel, (2) diminish the ability of the Chinese industrial base to replenish defense articles, and (3) inhibit China's ability to evade sanctions.
Sponsors: Rep. Smith, Christopher H. [R-NJ-4]
Target Audience
Population: People living in China
Estimated Size: 10000000
- The legislation is primarily focused on geopolitical and economic factors relating to Taiwan and China, suggesting the main target populations are in these regions.
- China's reliance on goods and services from the United States and its potential vulnerabilities to sanctions directly involve a substantial portion of its economic infrastructure.
- The Taiwanese population may be indirectly affected due to the geopolitical tension escalation due to this legislation.
- The potential for economic disruption could affect U.S. businesses engaged in trade with China.
- Global economies may be impacted as trade, especially in strategic industries, is disrupted.
Reasoning
- The primary American population that might be impacted by the Taiwan Protection and National Resilience Act includes defense industry workers, businesses reliant on imports from China, and economists focused on global trade. To capture a diverse range of perspectives, interviews should cover military personnel, business owners, economists, and everyday citizens.
- Many Americans are employed in sectors tied to military procurement and international trade. A shift in trade dynamics could lead to some economic instability, affecting their wellbeing.
- Though the direct geopolitical conflict focuses on Taiwan and China, ripple effects in the global and U.S. economy are inevitable, primarily in terms of supply chain disruptions and potential job losses.
Simulated Interviews
Defense Analyst (Washington D.C.)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy strengthens national security by preparing for longer-term geopolitical threats.
- I believe our military readiness and strategic positioning improve with this act.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Tech Company Executive (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy adds risk to our supply chain, but also pushes us to diversify sourcing.
- In the short term, disruptions could impact production and profits.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Small Business Owner (Houston, TX)
Age: 29 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- My immediate concern is increased tariffs or sanctions could raise costs significantly.
- I support a strong stance on national security, but it's going to be financially demanding.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Automotive Factory Worker (Detroit, MI)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Job security could be affected by rapid changes in import tariffs or sanctions.
- I hope this policy encourages local production, despite short-term disruptions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Economist (New York, NY)
Age: 35 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Economic redistribution due to this act is likely but necessary for national security.
- Long-term benefits help counter short-term trade disruptions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Import/Export Specialist (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Logistical strategies must consider the potential for heightened tensions and restrictions.
- We have to strategize for potential trade adjustments, which can be stressful.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
University Student (Chicago, IL)
Age: 24 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy provides real-world applications for what I'm studying.
- I feel more secure knowing the government is considering strategic implications.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Human Resource Manager (Seattle, WA)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- There may be workforce impacts if import regulations shift suddenly.
- Aligns with strategic goals, but could necessitate tough workforce decisions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Policy Advisor (Boston, MA)
Age: 48 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's a significant stride towards reassuring allies and deterring Chinese aggression.
- Will need regular updates and assessments to ensure effectiveness.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Freelance Journalist (Miami, FL)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy provides much-needed material for analysis on U.S.-China relations.
- I anticipate some backlash or counter-actions from China.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $15000000 (Low: $12000000, High: $18000000)
Year 2: $15000000 (Low: $12000000, High: $18000000)
Year 3: $15000000 (Low: $12000000, High: $18000000)
Year 5: $15000000 (Low: $12000000, High: $18000000)
Year 10: $15000000 (Low: $12000000, High: $18000000)
Year 100: $15000000 (Low: $12000000, High: $18000000)
Key Considerations
- Identifying critical goods and services involves inter-agency cooperation and substantial expertise which may drive costs and impact timelines.
- Sanctions strategies against a major economic power involve complex geopolitical considerations, impacting the macroeconomic environment.
- Potential retaliatory trade measures by China could result in broader economic implications, including impacts on American industries integrated with Chinese supply chains.