Bill Overview
Title: Dairy Pricing Opportunity Act
Description: This bill directs the Department of Agriculture (USDA) to hold national hearings to review Federal Milk Marketing Orders. (USDA uses these orders to establish a minimum price for various classes of milk.) The hearings must include the review of proposals from producers and the dairy industry on the price of Class I skim milk.
Sponsors: Rep. Morelle, Joseph D. [D-NY-25]
Target Audience
Population: People involved in or consuming from the dairy industry globally
Estimated Size: 330000000
- The bill is related to dairy pricing, specifically focusing on Federal Milk Marketing Orders.
- It mentions Class I skim milk, which includes milk used for drinking purposes.
- The milk pricing affects dairy farmers who produce milk as they are paid based on these orders.
- Dairy processors and companies are also affected because they purchase milk to produce various dairy products.
- Consumers could be indirectly affected as changes in the pricing can impact retail milk prices.
Reasoning
- The target population includes dairy farmers directly impacted by changes to Federal Milk Marketing Orders.
- Consumers make up a large portion of the population and may experience indirect effects if milk prices fluctuate.
- The policy budget is modest when considering the overall size of the milk market, meaning changes might be marginal for many consumers but significant for smaller producers.
- The population simulated reflects varying involvement with the dairy industry, with some directly impacted financially and others indirectly as consumers.
Simulated Interviews
Dairy farmer (Wisconsin)
Age: 52 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Review of milk prices is crucial for fair compensation.
- I'm hopeful but also anxious about potential negative impacts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Dairy processor (California)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The hearings could help stabilize market prices, benefiting businesses like ours.
- There's uncertainty about long-term impacts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 4 |
Retail grocery manager (New York)
Age: 34 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The change might affect how we price milk, impacting sales.
- Adjusted prices could remove cost barriers for consumers.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 6 |
Consumer (Texas)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If prices increase, our grocery budget could be tight.
- I support farmers getting fair pay; I hope prices stay fair for buyers too.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Small dairy farmer (Pennsylvania)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The ability to propose pricing changes is a positive step for small farmers.
- I expect some relief from volatility in milk prices.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 3 |
Retired (Florida)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I worry about increased prices with my fixed budget.
- I want farmers to earn fairly but not at my expense.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 5 |
Agricultural policy analyst (Idaho)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 1/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's an opportunity for necessary reform in milk pricing.
- Success depends on how it's implemented.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
School nutrition director (Minnesota)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Changes in milk pricing could impact program budgets.
- I'm hopeful it means more stable costs over time.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Environmental activist (Oregon)
Age: 23 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The future of dairy pricing should align with sustainable practices.
- I hope hearings discuss environmental impacts too.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Retired dairy farm worker (Vermont)
Age: 67 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The hearings might improve conditions for current workers.
- I've seen many struggling due to unfair pricing.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 3 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)
Year 2: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 3: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- Estimating costs for a one-time national hearing is complex, with costs varying based on the number of hearings, location, and participant involvement.
- Subsequent policy changes following these hearings might have far-reaching economic implications beyond immediate costs.
- The dairy industry's broad impact on agriculture and consumer markets should be considered for comprehensive analysis.