Bill Overview
Title: To provide that Donald J. Trump is ineligible to again hold the Office of President of the United States or to hold any office, civil or military, under the United States.
Description: This bill declares that Donald Trump, under the Fourteenth Amendment (which disqualifies from office specified officials who have engaged in insurrection or rebellion), is ineligible to again hold the Office of President of the United States, or to hold any office, civil or military, under the United States.
Sponsors: Rep. Cicilline, David N. [D-RI-1]
Target Audience
Population: All global citizens due to international influence and foreign policy implications
Estimated Size: 334000000
- The bill directly affects Donald Trump, an individual, by restricting his eligibility for future political offices.
- The bill influences the political landscape by potentially removing Trump as a candidate, impacting voter choice and party dynamics, especially among his supporters.
- All U.S. eligible voters are indirectly impacted, as their potential voting options are altered by this legislation.
- The bill may have international ramifications by affecting U.S. foreign policy dynamics depending on Trump's global stance and support.
Reasoning
- The policy primarily impacts voters with strong opinions on Donald Trump, either positive or negative.
- To reflect a diversity of perspectives, interviews cover individuals from various demographic groups and political affiliations.
- The budget constraint is considered as the policy may not significantly alter the daily lives for many people, focusing more on political sentiment and long-term electoral impacts.
- Considering global influence underscores the wide-reaching effects but for this simulation, focus remains on U.S. domestic perspectives.
- Not everyone will see a significant change in personal wellbeing due to the policy, but potential political shifts are significant.
Simulated Interviews
retired coal miner (West Virginia)
Age: 62 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I voted for Trump twice and was hoping to vote for him again. This bill feels like a betrayal to his supporters.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
tech startup founder (New York)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's a necessary step to protect democracy. I'm glad this is being taken seriously.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
university professor (California)
Age: 45 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This decision is significant for ethics in politics. It's a precedent for accountability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 4 |
college student (Florida)
Age: 23 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm just starting to engage with politics. It's confusing but seems necessary.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
small business owner (Texas)
Age: 57 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 13/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Removing Trump might stabilize politics, but I'm worried about the economic implications.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
hospital nurse (Ohio)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I don't think politicians should engage in dangerous activities. It's appropriate to restrict such individuals.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
automotive engineer (Michigan)
Age: 51 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's a distraction from more important issues, like the economy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
graphic designer (Illinois)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I just hope this doesn't create more division in the country.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
public school teacher (Georgia)
Age: 39 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Perhaps this will help us move on from contentious political figures and focus on policy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
retired military veteran (Arizona)
Age: 67 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This feels like an attack on what I value about leadership. I'm disappointed.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $5000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $10000000)
Year 2: $100000 (Low: $100000, High: $500000)
Year 3: $100000 (Low: $100000, High: $500000)
Year 5: $100000 (Low: $100000, High: $500000)
Year 10: $100000 (Low: $100000, High: $500000)
Year 100: $100000 (Low: $100000, High: $500000)
Key Considerations
- The policy is symbolic and political, aiming to set precedence on eligibility based on prior conduct as interpreted under the Fourteenth Amendment.
- Potential legal challenges and defenses may create ancillary legal system costs.
- Consideration must be made for the political ramifications and their effects on voter behavior and party dynamics.
- As this bill does not involve changes to existing programs, direct budget implications are largely legal and administrative.