Bill Overview
Title: Petroleum Price Reduction Act
Description: This bill requires the President to prohibit exports of crude oil and finished oil products (other than natural gas) whenever the price for crude oil exceeds a specified threshold. The President may waive the prohibition in certain circumstances.
Sponsors: Rep. Sherman, Brad [D-CA-30]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals worldwide affected by changes in oil prices
Estimated Size: 330000000
- The bill targets the petroleum industry, which is a major global industry involving countries worldwide.
- Many countries rely on petroleum exports; thus, restricting U.S. crude oil exports could impact global oil prices.
- If the U.S. prohibits oil exports, this could lead to increased supply within the U.S., possibly reducing domestic oil prices.
- A shift in U.S. oil export policies could cause ripples in international trade dynamics, affecting economies globally.
- The average consumer worldwide could be impacted by changes in oil prices, influencing travel, shipping, and goods pricing.
Reasoning
- The policy could potentially lower domestic gasoline prices, impacting consumers' monthly expenses related to transportation.
- Workers in the petroleum industry, particularly those involved in export-related activities, may experience shifts in job security and wages due to reduced exports.
- Lower fuel prices might benefit individuals who heavily depend on transportation for their occupation, like truck drivers and delivery personnel.
- Secondary effects on industries using petroleum derivatives could lead to different economic outcomes, such as manufacturing and logistics.
- Potential environmental implications could arise if lower domestic prices lead to increased consumption.
Simulated Interviews
Oil rig worker (Houston, TX)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy makes me worried about job security since most of our output goes overseas.
- It might lead to a downsize if the company can't sell its oil at profitable rates internationally.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Rideshare driver (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I really hope the gasoline prices drop, it could help me save a lot monthly.
- However, I am unsure how sustainable these changes will be for my long-term expectations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Financial Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This legislation will likely disrupt current investment strategies in oil markets.
- I'm concerned about the potential volatility this could introduce to energy stocks.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Retail associate (Chicago, IL)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I don't think this policy will impact my transport costs directly.
- Public transportation fares are more concerning for me than fuel prices.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Retired (Oklahoma City, OK)
Age: 68 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If gasoline prices drop, my fixed budget might stretch further.
- Not sure how significant the changes will be, but any decrease helps.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Logistics manager (Denver, CO)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Reduced fuel prices could lower my operating costs significantly.
- This might allow us to invest in other areas of the business or lower prices for customers.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
College student (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 22 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I don't spend much on gas, so this won't change my budget significantly.
- That's not a major concern with my current lifestyle.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Trucking business owner (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 57 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could be a game changer for the profit margins of my business.
- I'm hopeful for long-term stability in fuel costs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 6 |
Elementary school teacher (Miami, FL)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- With daily commutes, lower gasoline prices can help my budget.
- I am skeptical about how much prices will actually drop.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Environmental Scientist (Seattle, WA)
Age: 47 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned the policy might lead to increased fossil fuel consumption domestically.
- However, the reduction could push for alternatives if accompanied by other initiatives.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $2000000000 (Low: $1500000000, High: $3000000000)
Year 2: $2000000000 (Low: $1500000000, High: $3000000000)
Year 3: $2000000000 (Low: $1500000000, High: $3000000000)
Year 5: $2000000000 (Low: $1500000000, High: $3000000000)
Year 10: $2000000000 (Low: $1500000000, High: $3000000000)
Year 100: $2000000000 (Low: $1500000000, High: $3000000000)
Key Considerations
- The policy would require robust monitoring and enforcement which would incur government administrative costs.
- International relations and trade agreements could be affected, potentially leading to economic and legal retaliations from other nations.
- The U.S. oil industry could face longer-term structural changes, affecting job markets and local economies in oil-producing regions.