Bill Overview
Title: BAN Oil Exports Act
Description: BAN Oil Exports Act This bill requires the President to ban the exportation of crude oil and natural gas from the United States. The President may provide an exemption to the ban in specified circumstances.
Sponsors: Rep. Espaillat, Adriano [D-NY-13]
Target Audience
Population: Global energy consumers and individuals involved in the oil and gas industry
Estimated Size: 300000000
- The BAN Oil Exports Act impacts individuals and businesses involved in the production, exportation, and sale of crude oil and natural gas, as it directly targets these industries.
- The global oil and natural gas market will be affected as the U.S. is a major exporter, influencing supply chains and prices worldwide.
- The U.S. economy, particularly sectors dependent on oil exports, will see changes in employment patterns and revenue.
- Energy-dependent industries globally may face changes in supply dynamics, impacting operational costs and economic conditions.
Reasoning
- The target population includes approximately 300,000,000 Americans, highlighting the extensive reach of policy impacts on jobs, economics, and energy dependence.
- With a budget of $55,650,000,000 over 10 years, policy considerations likely emphasize domestic market stabilization, worker transition supports, and alternative energy investments.
- The policy does not accommodate direct subsidies to individuals but may enable large-scale economic and infrastructure adjustments.
- Interview simulations include a diverse set of perspectives, including those not directly impacted, to provide a rounded view of the policy effects.
Simulated Interviews
Oil Rig Engineer (Houston, TX)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think this policy might put my job at risk. We rely a lot on exports.
- There might be a chance for domestic refocusing, but it won't replace the lost business quickly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 3 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 1 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 1 | 7 |
Environmental Activist (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm glad to see steps taken to reduce fossil fuel reliance.
- In the long run, this is a positive move for the environment.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 6 |
Energy Market Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The ban could create initial market instability, affecting my work.
- Long-term shifts to alternative energy markets may create new opportunities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Natural Gas Distributor (Bismarck, ND)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could devastate my business if I can't pivot quickly.
- Any relief or transition assistance would be key.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 3 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 2 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 2 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 2 | 6 |
Economist (Chicago, IL)
Age: 39 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Expect significant market disruption and short-term economic impacts.
- Policy could eventually encourage growth in alternative sectors.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Renewable Energy Researcher (Boston, MA)
Age: 26 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This is an exciting development for renewable energy.
- It's a chance to accelerate research and development in cleaner technologies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 7 |
Offshore Driller (Anchorage, AK)
Age: 31 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Possibly losing my job due to this policy is frightening.
- Hoping for job retraining programs or financial support.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 3 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 2 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 3 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 6 |
Retired Oil Executive (Dallas, TX)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This will have a profound impact on jobs and the economy.
- While retired, I'm concerned about the future of the industry.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 5 |
College Student (Seattle, WA)
Age: 22 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This ban signals serious commitment to change.
- I hope this transition promotes sustainable practices.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 6 |
Truck Driver (Denver, CO)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Fuel prices are critical to my costs and this ban could change everything.
- I'm worried about how this affects my livelihood.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $5000000000 (Low: $4000000000, High: $6000000000)
Year 2: $5100000000 (Low: $4100000000, High: $6100000000)
Year 3: $5300000000 (Low: $4300000000, High: $6300000000)
Year 5: $5600000000 (Low: $4600000000, High: $6600000000)
Year 10: $6000000000 (Low: $5000000000, High: $7000000000)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- The impact of the ban on global oil prices and the consequent reaction of the international market.
- The capacity of domestic markets to absorb increased oil supplies without significant price distortion.
- Potential retaliations or trade negotiations with tanked global markets significantly relying on U.S. oil exports.