Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/9511

Bill Overview

Title: Black Sea Security Act of 2022

Description: This bill requires the National Security Council to coordinate with specified federal agencies to provide an interagency report to Congress on U.S. efforts and policy options towards the Black Sea countries (i.e., Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia) and matters in the region, such as NATO engagement and Russia's aggression. Based on the report's findings, the council shall direct an interagency strategy for the region to (1) increase military assistance and coordination with NATO and the European Union, (2) deepen economic ties, and (3) strengthen the security and democratic resilience of Black Sea countries.

Sponsors: Rep. Keating, William R. [D-MA-9]

Target Audience

Population: People living in Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia

Estimated Size: 10000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Military Officer (Arlington, Virginia)

Age: 35 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I see the Act as an important strategic move.
  • It indirectly affects my daily work with increased collaboration and planning with Black Sea countries.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 8 8

Defense Contractor (San Diego, California)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The Act could increase our contracts, fostering job security.
  • Defense spending is controversial but necessary sometimes.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 9 6
Year 5 9 6
Year 10 9 5
Year 20 7 4

Diplomat (Washington, D.C.)

Age: 46 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The Act could improve international relations and stability.
  • It's crucial for security, but challenging on the diplomatic front.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 7 6

Software Engineer (Seattle, Washington)

Age: 32 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Not directly affected, but concerned about global security.
  • Cyber threats could increase tensions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Retired (Atlanta, Georgia)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I believe strong foreign policy is essential, but costs concern me.
  • Hope this doesn't lead to new conflicts.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 5 5

University Professor (Austin, Texas)

Age: 50 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Policy implications are academically significant.
  • Potential for research and educational discussions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Journalist (New York City, New York)

Age: 27 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This could be a big story in international politics.
  • Concerned about the implications of increased military focus.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Small Business Owner (Houston, Texas)

Age: 40 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Indirect effects on the economy are hard to predict.
  • Don't see an immediate impact on my business.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Educator (Chicago, Illinois)

Age: 54 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Spending on foreign policy should be carefully scrutinized.
  • Education and domestic issues are also important.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

College Student (San Francisco, California)

Age: 22 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Curious about how this affects international relations.
  • Direct impact seems limited at my level.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $500000000 (Low: $400000000, High: $600000000)

Year 2: $750000000 (Low: $550000000, High: $900000000)

Year 3: $1000000000 (Low: $700000000, High: $1200000000)

Year 5: $1200000000 (Low: $800000000, High: $1500000000)

Year 10: $800000000 (Low: $600000000, High: $1000000000)

Year 100: $500000000 (Low: $300000000, High: $800000000)

Key Considerations