Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/9508

Bill Overview

Title: ANTI-SOCIAL CCP Act

Description: This bill requires the President to impose property-blocking sanctions on TikTok, its parent company ByteDance Ltd., and larger social media companies with ties to certain foreign countries. Specifically, the sanctions shall apply if the relevant property interests are (1) in the United States; or (2) in the possession or control of a U.S. person, if blocking the transaction is necessary to prevent the company's commercial operation in the United States. These sanctions shall also apply to larger social media companies involved with countries or persons (entities or individuals) of concern, generally defined as any foreign government or person engaged in activities adverse to U.S. security and safety and includes specific countries such as China, Russia, and North Korea. For the purposes of this bill, a person of concern also includes private companies and individuals domiciled in a country of concern and subject to the substantial influence of the government. Specifically, in addition to TikTok and ByteDance, the sanctions shall apply to any social media company that is based in or organized under the laws of a country of concern; where a country or person of concern owns 10% of its outstanding voting stock or shares; that uses software or algorithms controlled by a country or person of concern, including through export controls; or where a country or person of concern has substantial influence over the company's data sharing or content moderation practices.

Sponsors: Rep. Gallagher, Mike [R-WI-8]

Target Audience

Population: People using social media platforms associated with a country of concern

Estimated Size: 150000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Content creator (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 23 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I rely on TikTok for my career, and these sanctions could severely impact my income source if creators like me are unable to access the platform.
  • I understand the need for security, but I hope there's a way to ensure creators aren't put at a massive disadvantage.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 8
Year 2 5 8
Year 3 4 9
Year 5 4 9
Year 10 3 9
Year 20 3 9

Software engineer (New York, NY)

Age: 31 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy could create uncertainty about my company's future if it's perceived as influential by China.
  • I support national security efforts but also worry about my career stability if the company faces sanctions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 5 8
Year 5 5 8
Year 10 5 8
Year 20 5 8

Marketing executive (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • TikTok has been a valuable platform for reaching our target audience, and these sanctions could force a major strategic pivot.
  • I'm concerned about how to maintain business growth without key social media channels.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 6 7
Year 20 7 8

Student (Atlanta, GA)

Age: 18 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Losing TikTok would mean losing a major way of connecting with friends and new trends.
  • I'm worried this will limit my sense of belonging and affect social interactions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 8
Year 2 3 9
Year 3 5 9
Year 5 6 9
Year 10 7 9
Year 20 8 9

Small business owner (Chicago, IL)

Age: 25 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • TikTok has helped expand my business reach globally; losing it would be a setback.
  • I hope there are measures to support small businesses transitioning away from affected platforms.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 7
Year 2 5 7
Year 3 5 8
Year 5 6 8
Year 10 6 9
Year 20 7 9

Retiree (Houston, TX)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I enjoy TikTok for entertainment, but my life wouldn't change much without it.
  • Concern for national security is important, and I can adapt to other platforms if needed.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 9
Year 2 8 9
Year 3 8 9
Year 5 8 9
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 9 9

Data analyst (Seattle, WA)

Age: 35 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Losing access to TikTok data could impact my job as it's a significant source for the analytics we do.
  • I'm worried about job performance and having to find new data sources quickly.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 6 8
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 8 9

Freelancer (Miami, FL)

Age: 29 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • My freelance business could suffer if I lose a significant platform like TikTok.
  • Need to diversify my client strategies to avoid relying on one platform.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 8
Year 3 6 8
Year 5 7 9
Year 10 7 9
Year 20 8 9

Educational consultant (Denver, CO)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • TikTok has helped me broaden educational influence and connect with students.
  • I'd need new ways to reach audiences without it, but I'm adaptable.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 8 9

Investor (Phoenix, AZ)

Age: 55 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The sanctions might affect tech stock performances, impacting my investment returns.
  • I understand the motivation but worry about the market stability and my portfolio.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 8 9

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $150000000 (Low: $120000000, High: $180000000)

Year 2: $100000000 (Low: $80000000, High: $120000000)

Year 3: $80000000 (Low: $60000000, High: $100000000)

Year 5: $60000000 (Low: $50000000, High: $80000000)

Year 10: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $70000000)

Year 100: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $70000000)

Key Considerations