Bill Overview
Title: Homeland Security Export Subpoena Act
Description: This bill provides statutory authority for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and U.S. Customs and Border Protection to take certain actions to enforce export controls.
Sponsors: Rep. Higgins, Clay [R-LA-3]
Target Audience
Population: People working in industries affected by export controls
Estimated Size: 3000000
- U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and U.S. Customs and Border Protection will have expanded powers, impacting how they operate and the scope of enforcement activities.
- Businesses engaged in exporting goods from the United States will be directly affected, as their operations will face greater scrutiny and potential legal obligations.
- Global supply chains may be affected due to more stringent export controls, possibly affecting business relationships and logistics for companies that operate internationally.
- Countries receiving goods from the United States may see impacts on trade flows and access to U.S. products.
Reasoning
- The Homeland Security Export Subpoena Act will increase regulatory scrutiny on businesses engaged in exporting. This will primarily affect companies involved in international trade, possibly impacting their compliance costs and operational complexities. Given the budget limitation, we must consider the reach and depth of the policy's impact, focusing on high-value targets like large exporters and industries with significant cross-border trade interactions.
- For the simulation, we consider the diversity of the U.S. economy, varying geographical locations, and the potential cascading effects on industries indirectly linked to export businesses. Some individuals, such as workers in logistics or small-scale exporters, may see minimal impact, while others, particularly in large export-dependent companies or positions where regulatory changes are keenly felt, might experience a significant impact.
- Considering the budgetary constraints and the scale of U.S. export businesses, the policy is expected to impact around 3 million American workers, across various businesses with different scales and scopes. We anticipate mixed reactions ranging from those who perceive it as necessary for national security to those who see it as a regulatory burden.
- The impact will likely vary over time, with possible initial disruptions as the regulatory frameworks are established. Over the long term, the policy could lead to more stable export practices but also potentially limit market expansion for some U.S. businesses.
Simulated Interviews
Export Compliance Officer (New York, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I believe tighter export controls are important for national security, but they add a lot of layers to our work.
- Initially, we might face some headaches and increased workloads, which could be stressful.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Small Business Owner (Miami, FL)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about any new regulations increasing my business costs.
- I hope it won't be too burdensome; otherwise, it might cut into my profits.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Logistics Manager (Houston, TX)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- We handle a lot of compliance as is, so any additional requirements could strain our resources initially.
- Long-term, it might streamline processes, but I'm wary of the short-term challenges.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Customs Broker (Seattle, WA)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- My job relies heavily on understanding current regulations, so changes like this can mean more work.
- It's a challenge, but it keeps me engaged and could be beneficial for business if implemented well.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Automotive Export Sales (Detroit, MI)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- In the auto industry, we constantly deal with international regulations; this just adds another layer.
- There's always an adjustment period, and we need to stay competitive.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Asian Market Liaison (San Diego, CA)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- International relations are already complicated; additional controls might slow processes down.
- However, they are sometimes necessary for security reasons.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Supply Chain Analyst (Austin, TX)
Age: 27 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 6.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- New policies can disrupt supply chains initially but can also optimize processes if managed well.
- I'm excited for potential improvements but cautious about initial setbacks.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Economic Consultant (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could lead to significant adaptations in trade practices.
- While it might create small barriers to trade, it's vital for maintaining international compliance.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
International Trade Lawyer (Chicago, IL)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 8.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- With new regulations comes new business, but it also means more complexity for our clients.
- In the grand scheme, these actions are necessary but need careful implementation.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Export Data Analyst (Boston, MA)
Age: 30 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could influence data trends significantly, potentially impacting strategic decisions.
- While it could entail initial challenges, data transparency might improve over time.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 10 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $7000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $10000000)
Year 2: $7200000 (Low: $5200000, High: $10400000)
Year 3: $7416000 (Low: $5408000, High: $10816000)
Year 5: $7844960 (Low: $5724480, High: $11462400)
Year 10: $9194063 (Low: $6702904, High: $13392000)
Year 100: $1790844008 (Low: $1308458745, High: $2619167378)
Key Considerations
- Compliance costs for businesses due to new legal obligations and scrutiny.
- Potential for international trade tensions due to altered export flows.
- Streamlining of enforcement processes for better efficiency in the long-term.