Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/9435

Bill Overview

Title: Saudi Arabia December 6, 2019, Anti-Terror and Accountability Act

Description: This bill prohibits using federal funds to support Saudi Arabia's military actions in Yemen or to conduct military officer exchange programs with Saudi Arabia. The bill also adds authorization for a $10 million claim for each victim of the December 6, 2019, shooting at the Pensacola, Florida, Naval Air Station to the United States Victims of State Sponsored Terrorism Fund. The bill appropriates to the fund a specified amount from unobligated balances appropriated for security assistance for Ukraine in FY2023.

Sponsors: Rep. Gaetz, Matt [R-FL-1]

Target Audience

Population: People affected by Saudi Arabia's military actions in Yemen and U.S. persons directly impacted by the Pensacola shooting

Estimated Size: 1000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

U.S. Navy Officer (Florida)

Age: 35 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The victim compensation aspect of the policy is a relief for many affected families.
  • Concerned about the cessation of joint training programs as these were beneficial for career progression and international collaboration.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Civil Rights Advocate (California)

Age: 27 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Supports halting federal funds for Saudi military actions, viewing it as a step towards more ethical foreign policy.
  • Believes the policy does not go far enough in terms of humanitarian aid for Yemen.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Civilian Contractor at Pensacola Naval Air Station (Alabama)

Age: 29 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Feels a sense of justice from the compensation fund but believes other support measures are necessary, such as mental health services.
  • Concerned the policy does not fully address larger systemic issues of gun control and military base vulnerabilities.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 4
Year 2 7 4
Year 3 6 4
Year 5 6 4
Year 10 5 4
Year 20 5 4

Military Exchange Program Coordinator (Texas)

Age: 32 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 8.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy directly impacts her job, leading to uncertainty about career prospects.
  • Sees merit in reevaluating U.S. military relationships, but worries about personal job security.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 5 7
Year 10 5 7
Year 20 5 7

Retired Marine, father of Pensacola victim (Virginia)

Age: 47 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 3

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Grateful for policy's financial compensation as it honors his son's memory.
  • Frustrated that it took a legislative measure for victims' families to receive aid, highlighting systemic issues.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 3
Year 2 7 3
Year 3 7 3
Year 5 7 3
Year 10 6 3
Year 20 5 3

Peace Activist (New York)

Age: 40 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Supports the discontinuation of U.S. support for Saudi military in Yemen.
  • Critiques the policy for not addressing humanitarian needs in Yemen more comprehensively.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Military Officer, previously stationed in Middle East (Georgia)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Believes the policy will improve accountability regarding overseas military actions.
  • Worries about potential consequential risks to U.S.-Saudi military cooperation.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

University International Affairs Lecturer (Pennsylvania)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Sees the policy as a strategic realignment of U.S. military commitments abroad.
  • Concerned this redirection could affect U.S.-Saudi relations in broader terms beyond military exchange.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Student, sibling of Pensacola shooting victim (Florida)

Age: 22 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The financial aid aspect is a crucial relief for her family, who are still recovering.
  • Feeling hopeful but acknowledges that long-term healing requires more than financial support.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 4
Year 2 7 4
Year 3 7 4
Year 5 6 4
Year 10 6 4
Year 20 5 4

Congressional Aide in Foreign Affairs (Washington D.C.)

Age: 55 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Views the policy as a positive step towards controlling foreign military expenditures.
  • Recognizes potential diplomatic challenges the policy could pose internationally, particularly with U.S.-Saudi relations.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $500000000 (Low: $400000000, High: $600000000)

Year 2: $500000000 (Low: $400000000, High: $600000000)

Year 3: $500000000 (Low: $400000000, High: $600000000)

Year 5: $500000000 (Low: $400000000, High: $600000000)

Year 10: $500000000 (Low: $400000000, High: $600000000)

Year 100: $500000000 (Low: $400000000, High: $600000000)

Key Considerations