Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/9381

Bill Overview

Title: HARM Act

Description: This bill requires the Department of State to designate the PMC Wagner Group as a foreign terrorist organization. Such designation also applies to any affiliated and successor entities undertaking malign activities against the United States and its allies or partners. (Among other things, such a designation allows the Department of the Treasury to require financial institutions to block transactions involving the organization.) The President may waive the application of sanctions against these entities if the President determines it to be in the national interest.

Sponsors: Rep. Cohen, Steve [D-TN-9]

Target Audience

Population: Individuals involved with or affected by the PMC Wagner Group's activities worldwide.

Estimated Size: 50000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Bank compliance officer (New York City, NY)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy adds to our compliance workload, but it's crucial for maintaining security.
  • Financial institutions must be accountable in preventing funds from reaching terrorist organizations.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Foreign policy analyst (Washington, DC)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's important to curb the influence of private military groups operating outside international law.
  • The policy reinforces U.S. commitment to international order.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Oil industry executive (Houston, TX)

Age: 50 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Designation of Wagner Group highlights the geopolitical risks we constantly navigate.
  • The policy might protect our interests by limiting antagonistic operations in critical regions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 8 8

International lawyer (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 38 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The new designation is a significant development impacting our legal consultation services.
  • It could increase litigation as firms decipher compliance requirements.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

Small business owner (Miami, FL)

Age: 27 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Policies like these can have ripple effects on small businesses like mine.
  • Blocking transactions might lead to new trade barriers, affecting sales.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 6 7
Year 20 6 7

Retired military officer (Chicago, IL)

Age: 60 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Ensuring such organizations are designated appropriately is critical for national security.
  • The policy might give veterans confidence in the nation's protective measures.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 7 5

Graduate student (Atlanta, GA)

Age: 22 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 18/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy provides a real-world case study of economic sanctions in action.
  • It's fascinating to see theory applied in real international situations.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Economics professor (Boston, MA)

Age: 55 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy is a perfect teaching tool for illustrating how sanctions can alter markets.
  • It adds dimensions to our understanding of economic diplomacy.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Tech company executive (Seattle, WA)

Age: 40 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Policies like these create demand for secure compliance technologies.
  • It's an opportunity for growth in tech solutions for financial security.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

Human rights activist (Dallas, TX)

Age: 34 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The HARM Act represents progress in holding paramilitary groups accountable for their actions.
  • This policy aligns with global movements for peace and human rights.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 9 6
Year 20 9 6

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $10000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $15000000)

Year 2: $10000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $15000000)

Year 3: $10000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $15000000)

Year 5: $10000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $15000000)

Year 10: $10000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $15000000)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Key Considerations