Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/9231

Bill Overview

Title: Service Worker Economic Stabilization Act

Description: This bill suspends the disallowance of the tax deduction for business-related entertainment expenses in taxable years beginning in 2023 through 2024 and extends through 2024 the 100% deduction for business meals.

Sponsors: Rep. LaHood, Darin [R-IL-18]

Target Audience

Population: Workers in entertainment and food service industries

Estimated Size: 20000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Waitress (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could potentially increase business meals at my restaurant.
  • More clients lead to higher tips and better shifts.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 4

Bartender (New York, NY)

Age: 32 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy might help bring in more corporate events.
  • If business picks up, I could see better tip income.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 5

Restaurant Manager (Chicago, IL)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I believe the bill will increase our business meal numbers slightly, but most of our revenue comes from families not business meals.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Chef (Austin, TX)

Age: 29 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I see some potential for increased demand for high-end business dining, which might boost my job's stability.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 5

Event Planner (Las Vegas, NV)

Age: 53 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • More tax deductions could mean more corporate events, boosting my commissions and job security.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 5

Caterer (Miami, FL)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I expect this policy to make our services more attractive to businesses, potentially increasing bookings.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Freelance Photographer (Seattle, WA)

Age: 37 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • An uptick in corporate event budgets could mean more work for me.
  • I'm cautiously optimistic about the positive impact.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Coffee Shop Barista (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 24 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I doubt this policy affects my work significantly, as our clientele is more casual.
  • Could see a slight increase if office events are more common though.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Hotel Concierge (Denver, CO)

Age: 41 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • May see more inquiries for dining and entertainment recommendations tied to business conventions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 6 5

HR Manager in a tech firm (Boston, MA)

Age: 38 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Budget extensions from the policy could make it easier to plan team events.
  • Expect more leeway in scheduling team meals and entertainment.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $1000000000 (Low: $900000000, High: $1100000000)

Year 2: $1050000000 (Low: $950000000, High: $1150000000)

Year 3: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Key Considerations