Bill Overview
Title: MAHSA Act
Description: This bill requires the President to impose property- and visa-blocking sanctions on certain persons (individuals and entities) affiliated with Iran. The President must make determinations about whether certain existing sanctions apply to specified persons and impose the applicable sanctions, including determinations concerning (1) the Supreme Leader of Iran and any official in the Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran, (2) the President of Iran and any official in the Office of the President of Iran, and (3) any entity overseen by the Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran which is complicit in supporting human rights abuses or terrorism.
Sponsors: Rep. Banks, Jim [R-IN-3]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals and entities affiliated with Iranian government subject to US sanctions
Estimated Size: 500
- Sanctions are typically targeted at specific groups of people and entities rather than the general population.
- Individuals directly affiliated with the Iranian government, especially those working with the Office of the Supreme Leader and the President, will be affected.
- Entities that are overseen by the Office of the Supreme Leader and are supporting human rights abuses or terrorism are the focus.
- The sanctions also affect international business dealings with these entities, impacting businesses and individuals engaged in trade or investment with the sanctioned entities.
- The broader Iranian populace may be indirectly impacted by economic ramifications of the sanctions.
Reasoning
- The target population directly impacted by the policy is relatively small, made up of individuals and entities connected to the Iranian government and related activities.
- Only a fraction of people in the U.S. fall into this group, particularly dual-nationals or those involved in business dealings with these sanctioned individuals or entities.
- Indirect effects may spread to a broader audience through economic changes, but these are secondary and likely diffuse among the general population.
- The policy is well within budget limits given its focus on specific, high-profile individuals rather than broad sectors or populations.
Simulated Interviews
Import-Export Business Owner (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 44 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about the impact on my business, especially with goods that have ties to Iranian entities.
- There's a moral satisfaction in holding accountable those involved in human rights abuses, but the economic side worries me.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Human Rights Activist (New York, NY)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Imposing sanctions is a necessary move to put pressure on those responsible for human rights abuses.
- I'm hopeful this will lead to positive changes, although I'm aware it could have negative economic impacts indirectly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Oil Industry Executive (Houston, TX)
Age: 51 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions could disrupt certain business operations if any partners are linked to the sanctioned entities.
- Short-term inconveniences might arise, but I'm optimistic about long-term resolution.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Government Employee (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sanctions are a tool with mixed efficacy; they need to be part of broader diplomatic efforts.
- From a career perspective, this provides a complex yet interesting challenge.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Research Scientist (San Diego, CA)
Age: 48 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- In the short term, sanctions could add stress to Iran's economy, which may spur domestic unrest.
- Long-term outcomes are uncertain; sanctions may need to be complemented by diplomatic initiatives.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
University Student (Chicago, IL)
Age: 25 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy is a strong statement against human rights abuses, but I'm concerned about the broader geopolitical tensions it may exacerbate.
- I hope to see effective follow-up measures from U.S. diplomacy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Retired Diplomacy Consultant (Boston, MA)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions are necessary but should be applied judiciously to avoid unnecessary economic suffering for the Iranian populace.
- It'll be interesting to watch their long-term effects on diplomatic negotiations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Small Business Owner (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 35 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 1/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm apprehensive that this might limit my product lines significantly.
- It's hard to balance supporting ethical policies and sustaining a livelihood.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Attorney Specializing in Immigration Law (Salt Lake City, UT)
Age: 42 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I foresee an increase in legal challenges due to potential visa issues for some clients.
- It's frustrating to see such policies stress ordinary people, though their intent is focused on high-level figures.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Journalist (Seattle, WA)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 8.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Reporting on these matters will likely draw a lot of public interest.
- There's a need for nuanced explanations of the policy's aims and impacts to educate the public effectively.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $15000000 (Low: $12000000, High: $18000000)
Year 2: $12500000 (Low: $10000000, High: $15000000)
Year 3: $13000000 (Low: $10500000, High: $15500000)
Year 5: $13500000 (Low: $11000000, High: $16000000)
Year 10: $14000000 (Low: $11500000, High: $16500000)
Year 100: $15000000 (Low: $12000000, High: $18000000)
Key Considerations
- Administrative costs may fluctuate based on the complexity and number of entities sanctioned.
- Enforcement will require ongoing adjustments to sanctions in response to geopolitical developments.
- The impact on global oil markets needs consideration, as Iranian oil exports may be affected.
- Diplomatic impacts might alter international cooperation on broader security matters.