Bill Overview
Title: Preventing Adversary Influence, Disinformation, and Obscured Foreign Financing Act of 2022
Description: 2022 This bill requires certain persons to register as agents of a foreign principal if the foreign principal in question is China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, or Syria. Currently, the Foreign Agents Registration Act exempts certain agents from the act's registration requirements, including agents (1) engaged only in private and nonpolitical activities to advance a foreign principal's bona fide trade or commerce interests, or (2) engaged in certain lobbying activities and where the agent has registered as a lobbyist. Under this bill, these exemptions shall not apply if the foreign principal is one of the countries specified in this bill. The changes made by this bill shall expire on October 1, 2025.
Sponsors: Rep. Pfluger, August [R-TX-11]
Target Audience
Population: People acting as agents of certain foreign governments
Estimated Size: 5000
- The bill targets individuals who act as agents of specific foreign governments, namely China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, or Syria.
- Currently under the Foreign Agents Registration Act, certain agents are exempt from registration when involved in bona fide trade or commerce or specific lobbying activities; this bill removes those exemptions for the countries specified.
- The bill presumably targets professionals like lobbyists, business representatives, and legal representatives who may act on behalf of the specified foreign governments.
- The bill will likely affect compliance requirements for a subset of professionals working within the boundaries of international trade, lobbying, and legal representation.
Reasoning
- To simulate interviews with realistic diversity, it is important to understand the profile of individuals directly affected by this policy. The focus is on persons working with or representing interests from China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, or Syria.
- The policy primarily involves lobbyists, legal professionals, and business representatives that might work as agents of these countries, affecting their access to markets, influencing political processes, or managing foreign relationships.
- Given the constraints, this population is likely not large. Regulated professionals account for a niche group (estimated around 5,000 in the US), focused in regions like Washington D.C., New York, and possibly tech and trade hubs across the US.
- Budget constraints of $25 million in the first year suggest the policy will involve detailed tracking mechanisms, compliance audits, and perhaps initial start-up costs to include affected professionals.
- Population heterogeneity is captured by including directly impacted individuals as well as those indirectly or marginally affected.
Simulated Interviews
Lobbyist (Washington D.C.)
Age: 48 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I understand the necessity of transparency, but it might complicate my work.
- This adds a burden of extra paperwork and could potentially deter some clients.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Corporate Lawyer (New York)
Age: 35 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This bill might lead to administrative delays for my clients.
- Additional compliance could deter new business from these countries.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Public Relations Specialist (Los Angeles)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about how this will impact my business relations.
- Many contracts could be at risk if clients feel targeted.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
International Trade Consultant (Chicago)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This may narrow the competitive market for my clients.
- However, it might streamline legitimate operations in the long run.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 9 |
Tech Entrepreneur (San Francisco)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could halt some of our innovative projects.
- Ensuring compliance will require resources we don't have.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Financial Advisor (Miami)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The new compliance requirements could create trust issues.
- It might be preferable for clients to avoid the U.S. market.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 10 |
Oil and Gas Executive (Houston)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could be a barrier to some existing agreements.
- Greater transparency might identify different strategic opportunities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Cultural Exchange Program Director (Seattle)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- We might lose funding from key partners.
- It could negatively impact the scale of our programs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Academic Researcher (Boston)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 1.5 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This might restrict academic freedoms and collaborations.
- Increased scrutiny could benefit the integrity of research.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Software Developer (Atlanta)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The restrictions may limit my clientele.
- However, it could also filter serious business partners.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 10 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $25000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $30000000)
Year 2: $25000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $30000000)
Year 3: $25000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $30000000)
Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- The temporary nature of the regulation should be considered as the effects will only last until October 1, 2025.
- The potential deterrent effect on foreign influence efforts, which may not be fully quantifiable in monetary terms.
- The reactive capacity of the Department of Justice to handle increased registrations and monitoring.