Bill Overview
Title: Domestic Water Protection Act of 2022
Description: This bill imposes an excise tax on the sale of a water-intensive crop. The tax is 300% of the price for which the crop is sold and is paid by the manufacturer, producer, or importer of the crop. The bill defines water-intensive crop as a crop grown in an area experiencing prolonged drought (i.e., an area experiencing severe, extreme, or exceptional drought lasting more than six months) at the time such crop is grown, and by a manufacturer, producer, or importer that is a foreign corporation or foreign government.
Sponsors: Rep. Gallego, Ruben [D-AZ-7]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals involved in the production, distribution, and consumption of water-intensive crops
Estimated Size: 30000000
- The bill targets water-intensive crops grown in regions experiencing prolonged drought.
- Only foreign manufacturers, producers, or importers of these crops will be taxed.
- Consequently, foreign corporations or governments are primarily affected but indirect effects will be felt globally.
- Farmers growing these water-intensive crops will face decreased demand due to increased prices, potentially impacting their livelihoods.
- This may also lead to shifts in the agricultural sector regarding crop choices.
- Consumers worldwide could face price increases for these crops and derived products.
Reasoning
- The Domestic Water Protection Act primarily impacts foreign producers of water-intensive crops in drought-stricken regions. However, American businesses that rely on these imports for their products may experience supply disruptions and increased costs.
- US consumers could face higher prices for goods derived from these crops, leading to adjustments in consumer spending habits.
- Some American farmers could potentially benefit if they switch to less water-intensive crops, but nationwide well-being impacts would be varied based on personal and economic circumstances.
- Wellbeing impacts in the US would be indirect, primarily through economic and employment factors related to the agricultural sector.
- Simulations are created to reflect different ways people may experience these changes based on their roles in the economy, from farmers to consumers to business owners.
Simulated Interviews
Soybean Farmer (California)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about the potential shift in demand for crops.
- This might actually benefit local agriculture as we could see less competition from imports.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Restaurant Owner (New York)
Age: 35 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Ingredient prices might go up, impacting menu prices.
- Adapting to this change will be a challenge.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Supply Chain Manager (Nebraska)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Supply chains will need significant adjustments.
- Could lead to supply issues and higher costs initially.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Food Scientist (Arizona)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Encourages companies to explore more sustainable practices.
- Might increase research in alternative crops.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Economist (Texas)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy will stimulate discussion on sustainable practices.
- Could shift market dynamics in agriculture.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 10 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 10 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 9 |
Import Business Owner (Florida)
Age: 33 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Concerns about increased costs affecting profitability.
- Exploration of alternative sources will be necessary.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Agricultural Policy Analyst (Colorado)
Age: 40 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policy encourages responsible water use in agriculture.
- Potential long-term positive impact on water resources.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Agroforestry Expert (Washington)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy supports the movement towards sustainable agriculture.
- Could lead to more funding and research in agroforestry.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
College Student (Illinois)
Age: 22 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 20/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This bill aligns with my vision for sustainable agriculture.
- Eager to see how it impacts global trade practices.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Corn Farmer (Iowa)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 18/20
Statement of Opinion:
- May see some benefit as attention shifts to less water-intensive crops.
- Potential for changes in crop prices globally.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $25000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $35000000)
Year 2: $27000000 (Low: $22000000, High: $37000000)
Year 3: $28000000 (Low: $23000000, High: $38000000)
Year 5: $29000000 (Low: $24000000, High: $39000000)
Year 10: $30000000 (Low: $25000000, High: $40000000)
Year 100: $30000000 (Low: $25000000, High: $40000000)
Key Considerations
- The impact on foreign relations given the tax targets foreign entities.
- Possible legal challenges from affected nations or entities should be anticipated.
- Adapting the agriculture sector to less water-intensive crops may require government support.
- The role of climate change in prolonging drought conditions, influencing both the feasibility and financial outcomes.