Bill Overview
Title: To provide for a temporary 1-year halt to all proposed direct commercial sales and foreign military sales to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia of weaponry and munitions.
Description: This bill prohibits the issuing of export licenses for the transfer of defense articles to Saudi Arabia under the Arms Export Control Act for one year. This prohibition includes direct munitions containers; weapon support and support equipment; spare and repair parts; U.S. government and contractor engineering, technical and logistical support services; and other related elements of logistical and program support.
Sponsors: Rep. Khanna, Ro [D-CA-17]
Target Audience
Population: People in Saudi Arabia and employees in U.S. defense industry
Estimated Size: 100000
- Saudi Arabia is a major importer of U.S. weaponry and munitions.
- The prohibition affects direct munitions containers, weapons support and equipment, spare parts, and related services.
- Beneficiaries are mostly defense companies and contractors in the U.S. that deal in these exports.
- The Saudi military relies heavily on imported U.S. defense equipment for its operations.
- The halt might influence Saudi Arabia’s military engagements due to reduced supply.
- Other countries may react diplomatically or strategically to the halt.
Reasoning
- The policy will primarily impact defense contractors and workers in the U.S. defense industry, particularly those dealing with Saudi Arabia. Some people working in those sectors might face uncertainty or temporary job losses.
- Certain regions or communities with a high concentration of defense industry employees could experience more significant economic impacts due to reduced defense exports to Saudi Arabia.
- Others, such as human rights advocates or communities affected by military actions in Saudi Arabia and its region, might perceive the policy positively.
- There will also be individuals not directly impacted by this policy due to their disconnection from the defense industry.
- Given the goal of estimating wellbeing before and after the policy, it's crucial to consider both the direct financial impacts and the broader social and ethical perspectives of individuals.
Simulated Interviews
Defense Contractor Engineer (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Concerned about job security if this ban continues beyond a year.
- Feels the policy could be a statement towards reevaluating defense relationships.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Policy Analyst (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sees the policy as a necessary pause to reassess military involvement abroad.
- Believes it may lead to positive changes in foreign relations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Defense Industry Worker (Detroit, MI)
Age: 52 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Fearful of layoffs or reduced hours due to halt in exports.
- Worried about local economic downturn affecting families and friends.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Logistics Coordinator (Houston, TX)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Concerned about job insecurity but open to using skills in other industries.
- Believes the policy is a moral decision but at a personal cost.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Financial Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sees financial risk if Saudi Arabia seeks alternative suppliers.
- Believes diversification in defense markets could mitigate risks.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Software Developer (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 31 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Unfazed by the policy, does not see direct change in life.
- Supports ethical stances but sees no personal impact.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Retired Military Officer (Seattle, WA)
Age: 62 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Applauds the pause as a strategic reassessment opportunity.
- Cautious about long-term impacts on military alliances.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Human Rights Activist (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 27 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Supports the policy as a step towards reducing conflict.
- Hopes for permanent policy changes in arms sales.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Supply Chain Manager (Dallas, TX)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 1.5 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Worried about potential job loss and financial strain.
- Hopes the company can find new markets or services.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Economics Professor (Boston, MA)
Age: 46 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sees it as an economic experiment with insights into U.S. dependence on defense exports.
- Concerned about regional stability but recognizes moral arguments.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $0 (Low: $0, High: $10000000)
Year 2: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 3: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- The financial impact is predominantly seen in lost potential revenues rather than direct budgetary costs.
- There are broader geopolitical implications which have not been quantified in this fiscal estimate.
- These arms sales are part of the larger U.S.-Saudi economic relationship, and indirect effects could ripple across connected industries.