Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/9162

Bill Overview

Title: SOS Act of 2022

Description: This bill directs the Department of Homeland Security to designate illicit fentanyl as a weapon of mass destruction and requires the Office of National Drug Control Policy to conduct an assessment regarding that substance. Specifically, the office must assess foreign manufacturing of illicit fentanyl, the tools and capabilities across federal agencies to address trafficking of that substance, the capabilities of the Mexican military to conduct counterdrug missions with respect to that substance, the capacities and willingness of China to take specified actions with respect to that substance, and illicit fentanyl being trafficked into the United States from Mexico.

Sponsors: Rep. Wenstrup, Brad R. [R-OH-2]

Target Audience

Population: Individuals impacted by illicit fentanyl

Estimated Size: 2000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Unemployed (Rural Ohio)

Age: 27 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I've lost many friends to fentanyl overdoses. It's terrifying to think about it flooding our streets.
  • If this policy can actually reduce the supply, it might make it easier for people to recover without fear of relapsing and using something deadly.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 9 4
Year 20 9 3

Emergency room doctor (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Every week we see multiple fentanyl overdoses. It's taxing to constantly face such preventable tragedies.
  • This policy could curb some of that burden if it effectively addresses the supply issues.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 8 4
Year 20 8 4

Border patrol agent (Texas)

Age: 34 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Our team is stretched thin with the current situation. Anything to help address fentanyl trafficking is welcome.
  • I'm hopeful but skeptical about the effectiveness and coordination this policy might achieve.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 7 4

Teacher (West Virginia)

Age: 42 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • My brother died last year from fentanyl. It devastated our family.
  • I hope making this act serious sends a message and prevents others from experiencing the pain we've gone through.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 4
Year 2 6 4
Year 3 7 4
Year 5 7 4
Year 10 6 3
Year 20 6 2

Retired (New York City)

Age: 65 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I've seen the toll of fentanyl on younger generations. It's a relief to see policy attempting serious intervention.
  • The problem feels overwhelming at times, so any step helps.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 5

College student (Boston)

Age: 22 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm excited to see this issue being tackled at the federal level and hope it considers effective harm reduction strategies.
  • A comprehensive approach could really impact public health positively.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 6

Pharmaceutical researcher (Chicago, IL)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm hopeful that classifying fentanyl as a weapon of mass destruction can open new avenues for research funding and policy change.
  • Effective policy could support the science to develop better treatment options.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 5

Tech executive (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 55 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I don't see this policy impacting me directly, but supporting community health is always good.
  • Hopefully, a reduction in fentanyl helps the broader economy by stabilizing health expenses.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 9
Year 2 9 9
Year 3 9 9
Year 5 9 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 9

NGO worker (Miami, FL)

Age: 31 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's vital to address the multi-faceted nature of fentanyl's threat. Policy like this can enhance collaboration globally.
  • I'm eager to partner across sectors for real change.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

Truck driver (Phoenix, AZ)

Age: 38 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Transit delays from enforcement can be a hassle, but necessary for safety.
  • I hope this creates safer environments without bureaucratic headaches.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 7 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $30000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $40000000)

Year 2: $28000000 (Low: $19000000, High: $37000000)

Year 3: $27500000 (Low: $18500000, High: $36500000)

Year 5: $26000000 (Low: $18000000, High: $35000000)

Year 10: $25000000 (Low: $17000000, High: $34000000)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Key Considerations