Bill Overview
Title: To define the dollar as a fixed weight of gold, and for other purposes.
Description: This bill requires the Department of the Treasury to define the Federal Reserve note dollar in terms of a fixed weight of gold, based on that day's closing market price of gold. Federal Reserve Banks must exchange Federal Reserve notes with gold at this price. If a Federal Reserve Bank does not do this, Treasury must make any exchange and place a corresponding lien on the assets of that bank. In addition, Treasury and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve must report on U.S. gold holdings.
Sponsors: Rep. Mooney, Alexander X. [R-WV-2]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals using the U.S. dollar globally
Estimated Size: 331000000
- Fixing the dollar to a gold standard could potentially impact all individuals who use U.S. currency for transactions, savings, and investments globally.
- Historically, the gold standard prices currencies against a fixed amount of gold, which often leads to deflationary pressures.
- U.S. residents, gold investors, international creditors, and U.S. monetary policy are directly involved.
- The global economy could be affected by changes in U.S. currency stability and value, impacting international trade and investment.
Reasoning
- The target population encompasses all people using the U.S. dollar, both domestically and internationally, though for the purpose of this simulation, the focus will be mainly on U.S. residents due to the policy's immediate domestic implications.
- A variety of socioeconomic backgrounds and geographic regions across the U.S. need to be represented to capture diverse perspectives and impacts, from wealthy investors and business owners to low-income families and individuals living paycheck to paycheck.
- People who have direct investments in gold or significant savings in U.S. dollars are likely to see substantial changes in their financial scenarios; hence, they are an essential part of the population sample.
- Since the fixed budget constrains how effectively claims can be processed and the stability maintained, individuals with differing levels of direct monetary involvement (such as those with loans or international business interests) should also be considered.
- Given the global effect but localized policy, understanding the local economic climate, debt levels, savings profiles, and reliance on the stability of the U.S. dollar is crucial.
Simulated Interviews
Banking executive (New York, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I believe tying the dollar to a gold standard will bring international confidence to the U.S. currency.
- However, I worry about the immediate impact on the banking sector, as it could cause liquidity issues.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Freelance graphic designer (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried that moving to a gold standard will make everyday goods more expensive.
- I'm not sure how this change will affect my small savings, but I'm concerned about inflation.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 3 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Retired teacher (Miami, FL)
Age: 65 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I fear that my pension won't keep up if the cost of living changes unpredictably.
- Tying money to gold could be risky given past experiences with the economy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Software developer (Austin, TX)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think it's an innovative move that could stabilize the dollar over time.
- There's a risk of market volatility that I'm concerned about, especially for new tech companies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Small business owner (Chicago, IL)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- My business could suffer from unpredictable swings in ingredient prices.
- I'm hoping this stable monetary policy could eventually lead to stronger economic conditions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Factory worker (Detroit, MI)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 8.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I don't understand much about the gold standard, but I'm uneasy about its effect on job stability.
- I wish there was more job security assurance tied to these monetary changes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
College student (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 23 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I don't have much experience with how the economy operates on a large scale.
- I'm anxious about how this will influence student loan interest rates and my future earnings.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Real estate agent (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 42 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The housing market might face instability if financial policies aren't carefully managed.
- People's purchasing power could change which affects my job directly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Tech entrepreneur (Seattle, WA)
Age: 39 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 6.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy might help reduce inflation and keep venture capital more committed.
- It poses a risk, but calculated risks are part of my entrepreneurial mindset.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Nurse (Denver, CO)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm unsure how this will affect my mortgage support from banks.
- Stable financial climates mean more to me than speculative changes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $1200000000 (Low: $1000000000, High: $1500000000)
Year 2: $1250000000 (Low: $1050000000, High: $1550000000)
Year 3: $1300000000 (Low: $1100000000, High: $1600000000)
Year 5: $1400000000 (Low: $1200000000, High: $1700000000)
Year 10: $1600000000 (Low: $1400000000, High: $1900000000)
Year 100: $2500000000 (Low: $2000000000, High: $3000000000)
Key Considerations
- Significant operational changes needed at the Federal Reserve and Department of the Treasury.
- Potential market instability during the transition period as investors hedge against currency fluctuations.
- The impact on international trade and relations due to a fixed currency standard.