Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/9130

Bill Overview

Title: Maritime Fuel Tax Parity Act

Description: This bill extends the exemption from the excise tax on motor boat or motor vehicle fuels sold or used as supplies for certain vessels or aircraft engaged in trade between U.S. Atlantic or Pacific ports.

Sponsors: Rep. Garamendi, John [D-CA-3]

Target Audience

Population: People involved in U.S. maritime and aircraft trades across Atlantic and Pacific ports

Estimated Size: 2000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Maritime shipping operator (Long Beach, CA)

Age: 38 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy will improve my business's cost structure as fuel is a significant expense.
  • I expect some savings to be redirected towards expanding operations.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 9 7
Year 5 9 6
Year 10 10 6
Year 20 9 6

Port manager (New York, NY)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This could boost throughput at my port, increasing employment.
  • Logistics and scheduling might get more intense, which has pros and cons.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 7 5

Customs officer (Miami, FL)

Age: 32 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • More traffic might mean job security, but also more workload.
  • I hope this translates to better funding for our department.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 4

Freight forwarder (Seattle, WA)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If shipping costs go down, it can lead to more competitive pricing.
  • However, any regulatory changes bring uncertainties initially.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 7 5

Logistics coordinator (Houston, TX)

Age: 54 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I've been through many tax changes, they're manageable but require adjustment.
  • Savings often go to company, not employee benefits.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Longshoreman (Savannah, GA)

Age: 42 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Our work might increase, which is good for job security.
  • Would like to see increased hiring or overtime compensation.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 9 5
Year 20 8 5

Trade policy analyst (Portland, OR)

Age: 36 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This is a nuanced policy with potential for both positive and negative effects.
  • Needs careful monitoring to manage unintended consequences.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Shipbuilding project manager (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 8.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy might increase demand for U.S.-built vessels over time.
  • Good potential for job growth in our sector.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 7 5

Marine biologist (New Orleans, LA)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Concerned about increased shipping harming marine habitats.
  • Advocate for policies that balance trade growth and environmental protection.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Truck driver (Mobile, AL)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Any reduction in shipping costs might translate to more jobs for us.
  • I've weathered many changes in the logistics world, adaptability is key.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $10000000 (Low: $8000000, High: $12000000)

Year 2: $10200000 (Low: $8200000, High: $12200000)

Year 3: $10400000 (Low: $8400000, High: $12400000)

Year 5: $10608000 (Low: $8568000, High: $12688000)

Year 10: $11328249 (Low: $9127599, High: $13528899)

Year 100: $201665100 (Low: $162664080, High: $240666120)

Key Considerations