Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/9121

Bill Overview

Title: Qualified Agricultural Carbon Sequestration Act of 2022

Description: This bill allows certain qualified applicants (i.e., farms) a new tax credit for the abatement and sequestration of carbon dioxide emissions related to certain agricultural activities. The bill requires the Department of the Treasury to establish a qualified agricultural carbon sequestration and abatement program to consider and award certifications for farms eligible for the credit.

Sponsors: Rep. Ryan, Tim [D-OH-13]

Target Audience

Population: Individuals associated with farms and agricultural operations eligible for carbon sequestration programs

Estimated Size: 500000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Farmer (Iowa)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm optimistic about the policy; it aligns with the sustainable practices we're already trying to implement.
  • It would help offset costs and motivate us to adopt more eco-friendly technologies.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 6

Vineyard Manager (California)

Age: 52 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • We've been waiting for something like this. It could enhance our business model by integrating sustainability with financial benefits.
  • I hope the application process isn't too cumbersome.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 8 7

Farmer (Texas)

Age: 36 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Interested in the financial potential but unsure about the technical requirements.
  • Incentives could change perspectives among ranchers if they're substantial enough.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 7 5

Farm Owner (Florida)

Age: 58 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I have concerns about the policy favoring larger, more resource-rich farms.
  • Support for smaller farms to adopt sequestration practices is crucial for success.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 4

Agricultural Consultant (New York)

Age: 40 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy could boost demand for consultancy services, helping farmers navigate eligibility and compliance.
  • Excited but cautious about the program's potential complexity.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 8 6

Farmer (Nebraska)

Age: 34 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I see potential in using this to test more sustainable practices on my farm.
  • Availability of credits would encourage technology partnerships for innovation.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 9 5

Dairy Farm Owner (North Carolina)

Age: 50 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Dairy farms face unique challenges with emissions, and incentives could help us experiment more.
  • The program might favor sectors with clearer sequestration pathways, like crop farms.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 7 4

Farmer (Kansas)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm cautiously optimistic. Having subsidies for carbon sequestration could transform aspects of grain farming.
  • Concerns exist about the longevity of such policies amidst political changes.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 7 6

Organic Farm Owner (Oregon)

Age: 55 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Personally excited, but worried about larger farms dominating applications.
  • A chance to align our operations with personal values while gaining economic benefits.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 7

Small Farm Operator (Georgia)

Age: 29 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • As a small farmer, benefits sound promising but we might face hurdles in meeting technical criteria.
  • Accessing funds could accelerate our transition plans.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $5000000000 (Low: $4000000000, High: $6000000000)

Year 2: $5100000000 (Low: $4100000000, High: $6100000000)

Year 3: $5200000000 (Low: $4200000000, High: $6200000000)

Year 5: $5400000000 (Low: $4400000000, High: $6400000000)

Year 10: $6000000000 (Low: $5000000000, High: $7000000000)

Year 100: $15000000000 (Low: $12500000000, High: $17500000000)

Key Considerations