Bill Overview
Title: Rebuilding the United States-Flag International Fleet Act
Description: This bill revises and reinstates certain transportation requirements, including requirements related to the transportation of agricultural products. For example, the bill reinstates requirements that (1) at least 75% of gross tonnage of seaborne cargo for international food programs be carried on U.S. flagged vessels, and (2) the Department of Transportation reimburse international food programs for any cost premium under the U.S. flagged vessel cargo preference. Additionally, the bill revises provisions related to cargos procured, furnished, or financed by the federal government, including by authorizing the waiver of U.S. flag requirements for commercial vessels carrying such cargo when the vessels are unavailable at fair and reasonable rates.
Sponsors: Rep. Garamendi, John [D-CA-3]
Target Audience
Population: People involved in the maritime shipping and international food aid sectors
Estimated Size: 150000
- The bill primarily impacts the shipping industry, specifically those involved in the operation of U.S.-flagged vessels.
- There are regulations that affect international food programs, which indicates these programs' logistics and operations might be impacted.
- Other industries involved in the transportation of agricultural products may also be impacted due to changes in shipping requirements.
- The bill is focused on U.S.-flagged vessels and therefore mainly affects American companies operating these vessels.
- The global shipping industry might see an impact due to changes in demand for U.S.-flagged vessels, which might affect international shipping companies if less U.S. cargo is carried on their ships.
Reasoning
- The targeted population primarily consists of those working in or closely associated with the U.S. shipping industry, especially those related to U.S.-flagged vessels. This includes crew members, management, and logistics personnel who will be directly affected by changes in work volume due to the reinstated shipping quotas for U.S.-flagged vessels.
- Given the goals of the policy, the primary benefit is expected to boost the U.S. shipping industry, potentially leading to job stability and growth, which can enhance wellbeing among workers in this sector.
- International food aid programs might experience shifts in logistics and costs, impacting the people who manage these programs. However, the policy's budget provision includes measures to reimburse cost premiums, which may mitigate negative impacts.
- Indirectly, agricultural exporters and their logistics operations might see changes depending on how the new shipping requirements affect international demand and supply logistics.
- The 150,000 target population estimate primarily includes individuals employed by or significantly dependent on the operations of U.S.-flagged vessels and those working in food aid logistics.
Simulated Interviews
Maritime Shipping Operations Manager (Houston, TX)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think the policy will provide more reliability in our operations and potentially increase job security.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 4 |
Logistics Coordinator for International Food Aid Program (New York, NY)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- While the administrative workload might increase, the reimbursement provision could offset most logistical disruptions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Chief Mate on U.S.-flagged Vessel (Baltimore, MD)
Age: 54 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 4
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could mean more consistent work opportunities and greater job security for me and the crew.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 3 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 2 |
Freight Forwarder (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 26 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about potentially higher costs and longer processing times, but the policy's reimbursement clauses might help.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Owner of Small Shipping Company (Seattle, WA)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy encourages business growth for U.S.-flag operations, which could increase our profitability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 5 |
Port Authority Official (New Orleans, LA)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Enhanced U.S. flag shipping might lead to more streamlined operations at the port, boosting efficiency.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Maritime Law Attorney (Miami, FL)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy might increase demand for legal compliance services, which is beneficial for my practice.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 4 |
Import/Export Specialist (Savannah, GA)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I am waiting to see how the policy's cost structure affects our operations, but I'm cautiously optimistic.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Economist (Boston, MA)
Age: 37 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy might improve the U.S. trade balance slightly, but significant economic shifts are unlikely.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Agricultural Export Manager (Jacksonville, FL)
Age: 42 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 20/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Depending on how this affects shipping rates, it could either help streamline operations or complicate them.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $150000000 (Low: $130000000, High: $180000000)
Year 2: $160000000 (Low: $140000000, High: $190000000)
Year 3: $170000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $200000000)
Year 5: $190000000 (Low: $160000000, High: $230000000)
Year 10: $230000000 (Low: $180000000, High: $280000000)
Year 100: $450000000 (Low: $350000000, High: $550000000)
Key Considerations
- The cost premium reimbursement by the Department of Transportation is a significant recurring cost.
- Fluctuations in international shipping costs could affect the estimates considerably, especially if U.S. shipping costs continue to rise.
- Waivers for U.S. flag requirements would only be applicable when a fair and reasonable rate isn't available, potentially limiting their use.