Bill Overview
Title: Gray Zone Defense Assessment Act
Description: This bill directs the President and Department of State to report to Congress on U.S. capabilities to respond to gray zone campaigns. Gray zone campaigns are coercive activities a nation uses to achieve its objectives, not including diplomacy or armed conflict.
Sponsors: Rep. Chabot, Steve [R-OH-1]
Target Audience
Population: People affected by US capabilities and responses to gray zone campaigns
Estimated Size: 15000000
- The bill focuses on assessing and reporting on U.S. capabilities to respond to gray zone campaigns.
- Gray zone campaigns are covert and coercive activities by nations, excluding diplomacy or armed conflict.
- This involves national security and defense strategy.
- Government officials, defense strategy experts, and policy makers will be directly involved in the implementation and analysis.
- The U.S. President and the Department of State are tasked with some responsibilities by this bill.
Reasoning
- The policy targets national security and defense strategy, potentially impacting government officials, defense experts, and possibly private sector cybersecurity companies involved in gray zone defense.
- The general public may not be directly aware of the nuances of this policy but could be indirectly affected through improved national security measures.
- The policy's direct impact is likely more prominent on those in the defense and policy-making sectors.
- Long-term effects might influence national security effectiveness, potentially improving public safety and economic stability.
- Since the budget and scale are limited, broad public measures won't be directly visible; impacts might be subtle and more strategic.
Simulated Interviews
Defense Analyst (Arlington, VA)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy is crucial for understanding and improving our gray zone defense capabilities.
- Effective implementation could lead to a more secure national infrastructure.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 5 |
Software Engineer (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 31 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I believe this policy could create new opportunities and innovations within the cybersecurity sector.
- It’s indirectly relevant to my work as increased awareness and defenses against gray zone campaigns are beneficial.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 4 |
Journalist (Austin, TX)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Transparency in reporting U.S. capabilities is essential but must balance with security concerns.
- As a journalist, this policy provides an opportunity to inform the public about covert threats.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Government Official (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 54 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's a pivotal step towards a comprehensive national defense strategy that considers modern threats.
- Our responses to gray zone tactics must evolve and adapt as these strategies do.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 10 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 5 |
Academia (New York, NY)
Age: 40 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Monitoring and analysis of gray zone tactics are vital for academic perspectives on contemporary geopolitics.
- The policy reinforces the importance of research and educational content on these issues.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Public Relations Specialist (Chicago, IL)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- A clear understanding of gray zone activities can help in communicating risks and strategies to the public effectively.
- The policy aligns with efforts to enhance national security without creating public panic.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Cybersecurity Advisor (Denver, CO)
Age: 35 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 6.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Enhancing understanding of gray zone strategies can bolster conflict prevention tactics.
- The policy may help firms like ours to better serve and protect client interests.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Software Developer (Seattle, WA)
Age: 42 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy has the potential to influence data security practices within software development.
- I anticipate tangential benefits related to awareness and vulnerability assessment.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Retired Military Officer (Boston, MA)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- An in-depth understanding of gray zone tactics is essential for modern military and civilian defense strategies.
- This policy supports the future efficacy of national defense postures.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 4 |
Policy Researcher (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could lead to valuable insights and strategies in handling non-traditional security threats.
- My work benefits directly from increased governmental focus on these issues.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 4 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $25000000)
Year 2: $21000000 (Low: $16000000, High: $26000000)
Year 3: $22000000 (Low: $17000000, High: $27000000)
Year 5: $23000000 (Low: $18000000, High: $28000000)
Year 10: $25000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $30000000)
Year 100: $40000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $50000000)
Key Considerations
- The assessment involves multiple government departments, which adds complexity and costs associated with inter-agency coordination.
- Potential requirement of classified information handling may result in additional security measures and costs.
- There is a need for expert analysis on gray zone threats, which might involve contracted services.
- Long-term national security benefits could potentially outweigh the initial assessment costs, although not directly quantifiable in current estimates.