Bill Overview
Title: FAIR TARIFF Act of 2022
Description: This bill provides for the liquidation or reliquidation of certain entries of products (e.g., wine, spirits, and food) of European Union countries exported to the United States during specified time periods.
Sponsors: Rep. Thompson, Mike [D-CA-5]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals involved in the trade or consumption of European wine, spirits, and food in the US and EU
Estimated Size: 10000000
- The bill addresses tariffs on products imported from European Union countries into the United States, such as wine, spirits, and food.
- US retailers who import these goods will be directly affected as they may benefit from reduced tariffs.
- US consumers could also be affected if retailers pass on cost savings to consumers in the form of lower prices.
- Producers and exporters in European Union countries would also be impacted as the bill targets their exported goods.
- The global liquor and food markets could experience changes due to shifts in US import practices.
Reasoning
- The budget limits suggest that the policy will not be able to cover all businesses or consumers affected by the tariffs across the entire US, as $5,000,000 in year 1 is relatively small for nationwide impact.
- Target population includes importers, distributors, and some consumers but would not drastically affect the entire US population.
- Interview simulation considers a cross-section of those who may directly handle these imports (like import businesses), their immediate customers (retailers), and consumers who favor these products.
- Retailers who primarily rely on European imports would see more significant impacts compared to general retailers who stock a variety of international goods.
- US consumers might benefit if savings on tariffs are passed down as reduced prices, but this effect would likely be limited to those who specifically purchase European imports regularly.
Simulated Interviews
Owner of a Specialty Wine Shop (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The reduction in tariffs will be a great help to my business.
- I might be able to pass savings onto my customers, driving sales.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 4 |
Import Manager for a Food and Beverage Company (New York City, NY)
Age: 38 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy will help streamline our operations and reduce costs.
- More competitive pricing could help expand our market share.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
Food Blogger (Portland, OR)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Lower prices on European imports means more content and opportunities for my blog.
- My audience will appreciate access to affordable ingredients.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Owner of a Wine and Cheese Shop (Austin, TX)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Reduced costs will allow me to try new products and improve my offerings.
- This policy is a win for small business owners like me.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
General Consumer (Chicago, IL)
Age: 46 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I hope to see prices go down at my favorite stores.
- More affordable products could enhance my shopping experience.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Restaurant Owner (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 62 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 4
Duration of Impact: 8.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could significantly lower my costs, especially on spirits.
- Optimistic about passing the savings onto my customers.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 3 |
Retailer at a Chain Grocery Store (Boston, MA)
Age: 33 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 6.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Reducing tariffs might allow us to offer more competitive prices.
- Our store could see an increase in customer interest.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Local Brewery Owner (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Worried about increased competition from European imports.
- Policy may hurt local producers like me.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Distributor of European Foods (Miami, FL)
Age: 51 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Removal of tariffs is excellent news for our supply chain.
- Our profitability and pricing strategies will improve.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Young Professional (Seattle, WA)
Age: 26 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Not sure if I'll notice the effects directly, but cheaper goods would help my budget.
- Would love to see more availability and choices.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $5000000 (Low: $4000000, High: $6000000)
Year 2: $4500000 (Low: $3500000, High: $5500000)
Year 3: $4000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $5000000)
Year 5: $3000000 (Low: $2000000, High: $4000000)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- Changes in tariff collections could lead to short-term revenue losses.
- Retailers' pricing decisions will directly affect the consumer benefits from the bill.
- The European goods market might react to any sustained changes in US demand due to altered import costs.