Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/9054

Bill Overview

Title: End Lockdowns and Vaccine Mandates Act

Description: This bill prohibits a federal, state, or local government from placing restrictions on opening, remaining in, or entering a place of business (i.e., lockdowns) as part of that government's response to prevent the spread of communicable diseases or from requiring vaccinations in connection with employment.

Sponsors: Rep. Gosar, Paul A. [R-AZ-4]

Target Audience

Population: Global working adults subject to lockdowns and vaccine mandates

Estimated Size: 170000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Restaurant Owner (New York City, NY)

Age: 32 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The constant opening and closing of my restaurant due to lockdowns has been incredibly stressful.
  • While I am relieved that I can operate freely now, I am worried about potential health risks to staff.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 5
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 6 4
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 4

Oil Field Worker (Houston, TX)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I appreciate not being forced to vaccinate for my job.
  • There’s a sense of freedom, but I worry about future outbreaks.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 5 4
Year 20 5 4

Public School Teacher (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 55 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Ending mandates could risk student health and safety.
  • I support measures that keep the community safe.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 4 5
Year 10 4 5
Year 20 4 5

Tech Industry Employee (Miami, FL)

Age: 29 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy change doesn't greatly affect my work-life directly.
  • I hope this encourages more office re-openings safely.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 6 6

Independent Farmer (Rural Idaho)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Policy changes made no difference to my work.
  • It's good to have more freedom in business decisions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Healthcare Worker (Boston, MA)

Age: 38 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Ending mandates might lead to more health outbreaks.
  • I believe in getting vaccinated to protect everyone, especially with my job.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 4 5
Year 3 4 5
Year 5 4 5
Year 10 3 4
Year 20 2 3

Retail Store Manager (Chicago, IL)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy alleviates business operation stress.
  • There’s still an underlying health concern among staff and customers.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 5 4
Year 10 5 4
Year 20 4 4

Graduate Student (Seattle, WA)

Age: 23 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Curious to see how this affects academic environments.
  • Mostly unaffected by lockdown changes now but prefer flexible learning setups.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 4

Corporate Office Admin (Phoenix, AZ)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I value safety over the policy’s removal of mandates.
  • It’s important our workspace remains safe. Without mandates, this could be harder.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 4 5
Year 20 3 4

Fitness Trainer (Denver, CO)

Age: 27 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy might help stabilize my client base.
  • I worry about reduced business if another outbreak happens.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $2500000000 (Low: $1500000000, High: $4000000000)

Year 2: $2605000000 (Low: $1560000000, High: $4160000000)

Year 3: $2710200000 (Low: $1616400000, High: $4326400000)

Year 5: $2924130000 (Low: $1744920000, High: $4669560000)

Year 10: $3376820000 (Low: $2026092000, High: $5418888000)

Year 100: $9141015000 (Low: $5484609000, High: $14625624000)

Key Considerations