Bill Overview
Title: Defending Memory Chip Supply Chains from the Chinese Communist Party Act
Description: This bill requires the President to impose sanctions on entities that produce flash memory integrated circuits of at least 128 layers and that have financial links to countries of concern. The bill also requires sanctions on the Yangtze Memory Technologies Corporation.
Sponsors: Rep. Gallagher, Mike [R-WI-8]
Target Audience
Population: People worldwide using or manufacturing electronic devices requiring flash memory
Estimated Size: 300000000
- The global flash memory market is large, as these components are essential in a wide range of electronic devices.
- China is one of the largest producers of flash memory, particularly Yangtze Memory Technologies Corporation.
- Sanctions could create shortages or increased prices in the global electronics industry, affecting manufacturers and consumers worldwide.
- Sanctioned Chinese producers might lead to increased demand for flash memory from other countries, impacting their production and economies.
- Tech and electronics industries globally may face supply chain disruptions.
- Consumer electronics such as smartphones, computers, and other devices could be affected.
- The US has a significant share in the global electronics market, and this bill will particularly impact American tech companies dependent on these memory chips and their consumers.
Reasoning
- The policy targets entities with links to countries of concern in the flash memory sector, specifically impacting producers like Yangtze Memory Technologies Corporation.
- Sanctions could lead to changes in U.S. supply chains, affecting tech companies and consumers relying on flash memory.
- The evaluation involves a diverse range of people potentially impacted - from tech workers to consumers and individuals not directly involved in electronics.
- Considering the scale of the electronics market, both direct and indirect impacts on wellbeing are expected.
- The U.S. tech industry is likely significant in absorbing and adjusting to these changes, with buffer policies possibly being implemented.
Simulated Interviews
Tech Company Executive (Silicon Valley, CA)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I understand why the sanctions are needed, but it poses a significant challenge for our supply chains.
- My company's strategies might include seeking alternative suppliers, which could increase costs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Smartphone Retail Manager (New York, NY)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Supply issues might affect smartphone availability and pricing, disrupting business.
- I anticipate a significant impact in the first few years as the market adjusts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Software Developer (Austin, TX)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm more concerned about long-term tech industry shifts than immediate impacts.
- If the industry suffers, software jobs might also be indirectly impacted.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Electrical Engineer (Boston, MA)
Age: 32 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could be an opportunity to innovate and localize production.
- The immediate challenges could spur creative engineering solutions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Freelance Tech Journalist (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 37 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It provides material for deep analysis on international tech politics.
- Concerned about the effect on the availability of diverse tech products.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Retired Engineer (Houston, TX)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- As a hobbyist, I might face difficulties finding affordable parts.
- The industry's health is crucial even in my retired life as I track tech trends.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
College Student (Miami, FL)
Age: 22 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sanctions could affect the supply side courses related to hardware.
- Looking long-term, it might influence job prospects.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Consumer Electronics Store Owner (Seattle, WA)
Age: 48 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- My store might see prices rise and products become scarce temporarily.
- Adapting quickly will be key for survival.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Network Administrator (Raleigh, NC)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions might indirectly affect equipment upgrades.
- Direct impact on role unlikely, but cross-field knowledge is necessary.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
E-commerce Business Owner (Denver, CO)
Age: 35 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Initially worried about product availability, but optimistic about finding new suppliers.
- Expecting some short-term challenges but ready to diversify.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $500000000 (Low: $350000000, High: $600000000)
Year 2: $450000000 (Low: $300000000, High: $550000000)
Year 3: $400000000 (Low: $270000000, High: $500000000)
Year 5: $350000000 (Low: $250000000, High: $450000000)
Year 10: $300000000 (Low: $200000000, High: $400000000)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- Potential retaliatory measures from China impacting other sectors.
- The capacity of domestic and allied production in scaling up to meet demand.
- Time required to establish domestic production capacity for memory chips.
- Potential effects on international relations and trade.