Bill Overview
Title: No Chips for China Act
Description: This bill requires U.S. semiconductor manufacturers receiving Department of Commerce incentive funds to agree to not engage in any significant transaction involving the transport, export, or sale of any semiconductor sub-14 nanometer manufacturing processes with Chinese firms. The bill allows for an exception if Commerce grants an export license.
Sponsors: Rep. Budd, Ted [R-NC-13]
Target Audience
Population: People involved in the semiconductor industry, including manufacturers in the US and technology firms in China.
Estimated Size: 50000
- The bill targets U.S. semiconductor manufacturers who will be restricted from conducting certain business transactions with Chinese firms.
- The global semiconductor industry may be impacted due to changes in supply chains and availability of semiconductors to Chinese firms.
- Chinese technology firms relying on sub-14 nanometer semiconductors will be directly affected as this bill restricts their ability to obtain these components from the U.S.
- U.S. semiconductor industry workers might experience an indirect impact, either positive or negative, due to changes in business operations and market dynamics.
Reasoning
- The budget allocations suggest that the program is likely tactical and not able to deliver huge sector-wide shifts for employees.
- Impact on individuals varies based on their roles within the sector, their company's reliance on Chinese markets, and their future growth pathways.
- Since the program focuses on semiconductor manufacturers, not all individuals within the U.S. semiconductor industry may experience the same level of impact, with the effect more pronounced among those engaged with international business teams.
Simulated Interviews
semiconductor engineer (San Jose, CA)
Age: 37 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy might push our company to refocus on domestic and other international markets besides China.
- The policy could affect innovation and our competitive edge.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
supply chain manager (Austin, TX)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Short-term, there might be disruptions, but I think we can redirect supply chains.
- Long-term, we might need to build new partnerships and markets.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
financial analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could lead to some initial volatility in the stock market for semiconductor companies.
- Long-term there's potential for growth in other markets.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 10 |
semiconductor technician (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I don't think this will impact my job too much at least in the short term.
- If the company loses revenue, there might be workforce reductions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
semiconductor plant manager (Portland, OR)
Age: 50 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- We will have to navigate changes in our production schedules and customer orders.
- There's potential for operational challenges.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
software developer (Chicago, IL)
Age: 34 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- While this change won't directly impact me, it might affect future projects.
- This could trickle down to project funding and technology access.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 10 |
semiconductor marketing associate (Boston, MA)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I need to pivot our marketing strategies to focus less on Chinese firms.
- There might be more emphasis on other regions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
logistics coordinator (Dallas, TX)
Age: 39 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- We might see less outbound activity, but it doesn't affect my current work.
- Logistics might need optimizing in future.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
electric engineer (Seattle, WA)
Age: 32 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy might require some redesign plans for broader markets.
- Overall, I feel secure in my role domestically.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 10 |
HR assistant (Salt Lake City, UT)
Age: 24 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 13/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Our international hiring strategies might change, focusing more on domestic talent.
- HR policies and retention could adapt but minimally affected.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 10 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $25000000)
Year 2: $18000000 (Low: $13000000, High: $23000000)
Year 3: $17000000 (Low: $12000000, High: $22000000)
Year 5: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)
Year 10: $10000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $15000000)
Year 100: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $8000000)
Key Considerations
- The global semiconductor supply chain is highly interdependent, so changes in export rules can have broad market impacts.
- Monitoring and enforcement of compliance with export controls are resource-intensive tasks for the government.
- The bill may accelerate China's efforts to develop its own semiconductor capabilities.