Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/9033

Bill Overview

Title: SHORT Act

Description: This bill removes certain short-barreled rifles, short-barreled shotguns, and other weapons from the definition of a firearm for purposes of regulation under the National Firearms Act (NFA). The bill also eliminates certain restrictions that apply to the sale or transportation of such rifles and shotguns in interstate commerce. If a state or local registration or licensing requirement is determined by reference to the NFA, the bill treats persons who acquire or possess a short-barreled rifle, short-barreled shotgun, or other weapon in accordance with the Gun Control Act of 1968 as meeting the registration and licensing requirements. The bill preempts certain state or local laws that tax or regulate these rifles and shotguns. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives must destroy records relating to the registration, transfer, or manufacture of applicable weapons described by this bill within one year after the enactment of this bill.

Sponsors: Rep. Clyde, Andrew S. [R-GA-9]

Target Audience

Population: Individuals owning or interested in owning short-barreled rifles and shotguns

Estimated Size: 2000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Gun shop owner (Texas)

Age: 35 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think it's a great move to support the Second Amendment rights.
  • Less red tape will likely increase my business sales.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 9 6
Year 20 7 5

Law enforcement officer (Illinois)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm concerned about how this might complicate law enforcement efforts.
  • I hope it doesn't lead to increased gun violence.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 5 6
Year 10 4 6
Year 20 4 6

Collector (California)

Age: 42 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think it will make managing my collection easier and less worrisome.
  • It's good to see a reduction in unnecessary regulation.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 4

School teacher (New York)

Age: 50 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I don't see how this policy affects me directly.
  • I hope safety won't be compromised.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Retired military (Florida)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Finally, the government is respecting our gun rights even further.
  • I feel more secure knowing I won't face unnecessary legal issues.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 8
Year 2 9 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

Student (Vermont)

Age: 25 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I feel apprehensive about reduced regulations.
  • Hope it doesn't lead to safety issues.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Hobbyist gunsmith (Pennsylvania)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This gives me more freedom to enjoy my hobby without fear.
  • It should foster a more open environment for firearm enthusiasts.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 9 6
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 7 5

Gun rights activist (Colorado)

Age: 39 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This is a positive step for gun rights.
  • The policy aligns with the values we promote in our community.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 7
Year 2 9 7
Year 3 9 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

Social worker (Washington State)

Age: 30 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm worried about the potential for increased gun access to lead to unsafe situations.
  • I support responsible ownership but worry about loosening restrictions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 4 5
Year 5 4 5
Year 10 4 5
Year 20 4 5

College student (Georgia)

Age: 18 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I don't feel the policy really affects me right now.
  • I might consider getting a short-barreled rifle now that it's easier.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 6 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $25000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $30000000)

Year 2: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)

Year 3: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)

Year 5: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)

Year 10: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Key Considerations