Bill Overview
Title: Empowering States to Deport Illegal Immigrants Act
Description: This bill authorizes states to take actions to enforce federal immigration law. Specifically, the bill authorizes states to authorize state and local law enforcement to enforce certain provisions of federal immigration law, including provisions relating to unlawful entry and employing unauthorized non-U.S. nationals (aliens under federal law). State prosecutors must prosecute every case brought by a state under this bill. The bill also abrogates a 2012 Supreme Court ruling that invalidated an Arizona law that made it a crime for unauthorized non-U.S. nationals to work in the state. Specifically, the court ruled that the Arizona law was preempted by federal immigration law.
Sponsors: Rep. Gosar, Paul A. [R-AZ-4]
Target Audience
Population: Unauthorized immigrants residing in the United States
Estimated Size: 7000000
- The bill impacts unauthorized immigrants residing in the United States because it allows states to enforce federal immigration laws, which can lead to deportation.
- More than 10 million unauthorized immigrants were estimated to be living in the United States in recent years.
- The bill's enforcement provisions may lead to more deportations, especially in states with strict immigration policies.
- Unauthorized immigrants who are seeking or engaged in employment in states that choose to enforce the provisions will be directly affected.
Reasoning
- The distribution of interviews will include a mix of unauthorized immigrants who are directly impacted by the policy, as well as American citizens who may be indirectly affected, such as those in mixed-status families.
- Given the budgetary constraints, the policy's initial enforcement is likely to focus on states with stricter immigration stances, potentially leading to heightened impacts in those regions.
- The Cantril wellbeing scores provide a way to quantitatively assess changes in life satisfaction over time as a result of policy impacts.
- Interviews will include people from various occupations, age groups, and geographic regions to capture a broad picture of the diverse experiences and consequences of the policy.
Simulated Interviews
undocumented worker (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 35 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I am scared of what will happen if this policy is enforced. I could be separated from my children.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
construction worker (Miami, FL)
Age: 42 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could ruin everything I've worked for here. I'm always worrying about getting picked up.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
restaurant manager (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's difficult to focus at work when you're constantly concerned about your family's safety and stability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
community health worker (Houston, TX)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- More deportations will strain our community resources and tear families apart.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
retired (Denver, CO)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy will probably increase fear and reduce trust in our community.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
student (Chicago, IL)
Age: 19 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy makes me anxious about my future and my family's future in this country.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
teacher (New York, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy might increase dropout rates if families are forced to leave or if students fear for their parents.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
software developer (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 30 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy adds stress about potential changes in immigration law affecting my partner.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
nurse (El Paso, TX)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- While I have DACA, this policy still makes me worried for those around me who do not have the same protections.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
undocumented college student (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 24 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I live in fear of abrupt changes that could disrupt my education and life here.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 3 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $2000000000 (Low: $1000000000, High: $3000000000)
Year 2: $2100000000 (Low: $1050000000, High: $3150000000)
Year 3: $2205000000 (Low: $1102500000, High: $3307500000)
Year 5: $2425500000 (Low: $1212750000, High: $3638250000)
Year 10: $2963830000 (Low: $1481915000, High: $4445745000)
Year 100: $10473300000 (Low: $5236650000, High: $15709950000)
Key Considerations
- States will need to balance the cost of enforcement with potential savings from reduced unauthorized immigrant services.
- Decisions at the state level will widely vary, introducing substantial variability in cost and savings estimates.
- Legal challenges may arise from the re-authorized state powers leading to potential federal state conflicts.