Bill Overview
Title: Bulk Infant Formula to Retail Shelves Act
Description: This act provides through December 31, 2022, duty-free treatment to certain infant formula base powder used in the manufacturing of infant formula in the United States, subject to quantity limitations. Infant formula base powder means a dry mixture of protein, fat, and carbohydrates that requires only the addition of vitamins and minerals in order to meet the definition of the term infant formula in the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act. During this time period, articles of infant formula base powder shall not be subject to any additional safeguard duties that may be imposed under subchapter IV of chapter 99 of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule.
Sponsors: Rep. DelBene, Suzan K. [D-WA-1]
Target Audience
Population: Formula-fed infants globally and their caregivers
Estimated Size: 1500000
- The target population primarily includes infants who consume formula as a significant part of their diet.
- Parents and caregivers of infants will be directly impacted due to potentially lower costs of infant formula products.
- The manufacturers of infant formula within the United States will benefit from reduced costs associated with duty-free imports of base powder, potentially leading to cost savings and increased production capacity.
- The supply chain related to the production and distribution of infant formula, including retailers and suppliers, will be influenced by changes in cost and availability.
Reasoning
- The proposed policy is likely to impact: (1) parents and caregivers of formula-fed infants due to potential cost savings, (2) US-based manufacturers who may benefit from reduced tariffs on imported materials, and (3) possibly result in increased availability of infant formula due to cost reductions in production.
- The budget and scope suggest that the number of beneficiaries is relatively large, but the depth of the impact per individual may be limited given the budget constraints.
- Because the policy is short-term and has a specific financial cap, expecting substantial long-term changes in well-being may be unrealistic, but temporary relief or slight improvements are plausible.
Simulated Interviews
Primary caregiver (New York, NY)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 1.5 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm constantly seeking ways to save on baby formula as it's a big part of my expenses.
- Duty-free formula base seems like it could reduce prices temporarily, which is a relief.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Infant formula manufacturer employee (Dallas, TX)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Lower import duties mean potentially more job security as our company might expand or at least sustain production.
- It indirectly affects my job stability, though I doubt it changes my salary.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Retail store manager (Miami, FL)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Changes in formula supply and cost could make my job easier as customers might complain less about prices.
- I might personally benefit too, as I'm pregnant and considering using formula.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 4 |
Milk powder supplier (Chicago, IL)
Age: 25 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Competition might increase with foreign base powders coming in cheaper.
- I may need to adjust my business strategy but it's a short window of change.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 5 |
Pediatrician (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 39 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If formula becomes more affordable, it would relieve some of the burden on new parents.
- I don't see it drastically changing medical recommendations, but could ease some access issues.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Economist (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 0.5 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Economically, removing duties makes sense to counteract supply chain issues temporarily.
- Personally unaffected, but can see the broader benefits for industry efficiency.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
College student (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 23 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 0.2 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I wouldn't have been affected directly since I'm not purchasing formula.
- It's interesting from an economic policy perspective though.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Formula exporter (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 34 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy doesn't directly affect exports, but could influence competitors' prices domestically.
- I worry about temporary price distortions in the market.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Community health worker (Boston, MA)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.5 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- A drop in formula cost could really help the families I work with, hopefully it also continues beyond 2022.
- Short-term relief is better than none.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 4 |
Retired (Seattle, WA)
Age: 60 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.1 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Interesting policy for its economic and international trade implications, but it doesn't affect me personally.
- I appreciate the insights into governmental economic strategies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $7000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $10000000)
Year 2: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 3: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- The policy benefits domestic infant formula manufacturers by lowering their cost of importing formula base powder.
- Ultimately, changes in consumer pricing depend on the willingness of manufacturers or retailers to pass on cost savings.
- The quantifiable government cost is through reduced import tax revenue, directly influencing the fiscal balance.
- Market share dynamics may shift slightly in favor of larger manufacturers who can capitalize on bulk imports within the duty-free limits provided.