Bill Overview
Title: Gun Violence Prevention and Safe Communities Act of 2022
Description: This bill increases by .5% the excise tax on firearms, including pistols, revolvers, and shells and cartridges. The bill establishes the Gun Violence Prevention Trust Fund into which the increased tax revenues are deposited to fund gun violence prevention programs. The Trust Fund creates separate accounts for violence prevention, gun violence research, hate crimes data collection and enforcement, and firearm forensics. The bill also requires an inflation adjustment to the amount of the special tax on importers, manufacturers, and dealers in firearms and the transfer tax on firearms.
Sponsors: Rep. Davis, Danny K. [D-IL-7]
Target Audience
Population: People working in or interacting with gun-related industries and affected by gun violence
Estimated Size: 150000000
- The bill imposes an increased tax on firearms, which would primarily impact gun owners and potential gun buyers by possibly increasing the cost of firearms.
- Those involved in the manufacturing, importing, and selling of firearms would be impacted by the new tax requirements and inflation adjustments.
- The increased tax revenue is designated for gun violence prevention efforts, which may benefit communities affected by gun violence.
- Researchers and organizations involved in gun violence prevention and data analysis may benefit from increased funding.
- The bill focuses on the United States (as the bill is passed by the U.S. Congress) and thus primarily impacts individuals and entities within the U.S.
Reasoning
- The target population primarily includes gun owners, firearm industry workers, and communities affected by gun violence. However, the impact varies greatly within this population.
- The scale of the policy's impact is related to the size of tax increases and the allocation of resources to prevention programs.
- Some people may not be directly financially impacted but could see changes in community safety or research funding.
- The $15,000,000 budget is relatively small compared to the number of people it targets (150 million), which suggests impacts might be modest or indirect for many individuals.
- Urban populations where gun violence is more prevalent may experience a greater benefit from improved safety initiatives funded by this policy.
Simulated Interviews
Firearm Dealer (Houston, Texas)
Age: 34 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The increased tax might lead to a slight increase in firearm prices, which could reduce sales.
- As a small business owner, I am concerned about the added financial burden.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Community Activist (Chicago, Illinois)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm hopeful that increased funding can really help our community.
- Programs already in place just need more support to make a bigger impact.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Retired Police Officer (Phoenix, Arizona)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I support responsible gun ownership but worry about making it harder for law-abiding citizens to purchase firearms.
- Better enforcement of existing laws is more important than taxes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Graduate Student (New York City, New York)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The funding could open up more opportunities for research.
- Key in applying my education to reducing gun violence.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
High School Principal (Detroit, Michigan)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- More funding could lead to safer schools and better student outcomes.
- Concerned about where funds are allocated or if they get misused.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Firearm Manufacturer Employee (Denver, Colorado)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I worry about job security if taxes drive down sales.
- Hoping for little impact on manufacturing.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
College Student (Miami, Florida)
Age: 22 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Supporting research and forensics can help reduce crime.
- Concerned about cost impacts on recreational shooting activities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Gun Shop Owner (Memphis, Tennessee)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The rise in costs might slow down business, but safer communities could return more customers.
- Unsure about long-term business impacts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Research Scientist (Seattle, Washington)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- More research funding is a significant step forward.
- Excited about potential collaborations and discoveries.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Retired (Rural Kansas)
Age: 65 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Increased taxes on firearms seems unfair to responsible gun owners.
- Hope it truly focuses on stopping criminals.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)
Year 2: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)
Year 3: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)
Year 5: $12000000 (Low: $9000000, High: $16000000)
Year 10: $8000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $12000000)
Year 100: $4000000 (Low: $2000000, High: $6000000)
Key Considerations
- The bill's success in preventing gun violence relies on the effective use of distributed funds, which is uncertain.
- The amount of additional tax revenue generated depends largely on future firearm sales, which are unpredictable.
- Any economic impact on gun-related industries could affect employment within these sectors.