Bill Overview
Title: Ukrainian Territorial Integrity Act
Description: This bill prohibits the expenditure of federal funds to provide assistance to any foreign government that has recognized the independence of Russian-occupied Ukraine or supported the Russian annexation of Crimea. The bill authorizes the Department of State to waive such a prohibition upon determining and reporting that a waiver is in the national interest of the United States.
Sponsors: Rep. Connolly, Gerald E. [D-VA-11]
Target Audience
Population: People living in foreign countries affected by the bill's prohibitions
Estimated Size: 5000000
- The bill directly impacts foreign governments that recognize the independence of Russian-occupied Ukraine or support the annexation of Crimea by prohibiting U.S. financial assistance.
- Indirectly, the citizens of these foreign governments may be impacted as the lack of U.S. assistance could influence government budgets and policies.
- Ukrainian citizens may be impacted positively by weakening the support for the Russian occupation from other countries.
- Russian political interests may be negatively impacted as their international support base may face financial penalties from the U.S.
Reasoning
- In the U.S., those likely to be impacted by the Ukrainian Territorial Integrity Act include citizens with personal or business ties to affected regions, those in international policy roles, and communities with significant interest in foreign affairs, especially regarding Ukraine and Russia.
- Given the policy's context, individuals such as Ukrainian and Russian diaspora, international relations professionals, and members of related political advocacy groups are likely to perceive changes in international support, which could impact wellbeing through personal level concerns or job-related changes.
- Given the relatively low budget, the direct impact on the average U.S. citizens in terms of financial or immediate wellbeing changes is expected to be limited, unless they are closely linked to the issues at stake.
- The bill primarily serves symbolic and diplomatic actions, which means personal wellbeing changes are more psychological or indirect via policy perceptions and future security concerns.
Simulated Interviews
Foreign Policy Analyst (New York City, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I believe this policy is crucial for showcasing U.S. support for Ukraine's sovereignty.
- This move could influence other countries' diplomatic stance against Russia's actions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 4 |
Small Business Owner (Miami, FL)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm skeptical that this policy will have immediate effects but worry about potential escalation.
- My European partners are cautiously observing U.S. actions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 3 |
Software Engineer (Chicago, IL)
Age: 30 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I feel relieved that the U.S. is standing firm against Russian aggression.
- I am worried about the growing tension but hopeful for more international support.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Graduate Student (Seattle, WA)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This is a valuable stance from the U.S. considering global diplomacy.
- Our educational discussions are heavily focused on the implications of such policies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Retired Teacher (Boston, MA)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm proud that our government is firm with this policy, I think it's the right stance.
- I hope it sends the correct message internationally.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Oil Industry Executive (Houston, TX)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policies like this make me wary of further sanctions that could impact my business.
- It's a delicate balance but necessary for political pressure.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 3 |
NGO Worker (Denver, CO)
Age: 35 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy aligns with our organization's values and goals for regional support.
- It may inspire more dedicated efforts to aid impacted communities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 4 |
News Reporter (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Important for the U.S. to take this stance, but results are slow to manifest.
- Ongoing impact of policies like this on my reporting work will be notable.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Community Organizer (Minneapolis, MN)
Age: 25 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This is a positive move by the U.S., albeit more symbolic than material.
- It resonates within community discussions and awareness efforts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Government Employee (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 48 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 8.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This act is a strategic maneuver that aligns with existing diplomatic efforts.
- It's essential to our foreign policy engagement and might energize diplomatic approaches.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $2000000 (Low: $1000000, High: $3000000)
Year 2: $2100000 (Low: $1050000, High: $3150000)
Year 3: $2205000 (Low: $1150000, High: $3250000)
Year 5: $2350000 (Low: $1200000, High: $3350000)
Year 10: $2500000 (Low: $1300000, High: $3500000)
Year 100: $5000000 (Low: $2500000, High: $7500000)
Key Considerations
- Global diplomatic relations may be altered with countries affected by the bill.
- Consistency and transparency in waiver evaluations by the Department of State is critical.
- Potential geopolitical tension could further alter economic or security goals of the U.S.