Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8947

Bill Overview

Title: PUNISH Act of 2022

Description: This bill extends sanctions and national emergencies related to Iran established by specified executive orders and limits the authority of the President to waive sanctions related to Iran. The bill requires the Department of State to periodically report whether Iran or any foreign person has supported specified activities, including murder or politically motivated detention in Iran of a U.S. citizen.

Sponsors: Rep. Waltz, Michael [R-FL-6]

Target Audience

Population: People potentially impacted by sanctions related to the PUNISH Act of 2022

Estimated Size: 5000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Entrepreneur (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I am worried about the increased sanctions on Iran. It may affect my business, as exporting carpets might become more difficult and costly.
  • There is also a concern about the family members back in Iran and how they will cope with the economic difficulties.
  • Financial transfers might be harder, affecting both personal and business transactions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 7
Year 2 5 8
Year 3 6 8
Year 5 6 8
Year 10 7 9
Year 20 8 9

Finance Analyst (New York, NY)

Age: 33 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • While I understand the importance of sanctions, they complicate financial transactions with Iranian clients, which might affect my job.
  • There is also the risk of being personally sanctioned or audited, creating stress over compliance.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 8
Year 2 6 8
Year 3 7 9
Year 5 8 9
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 9 9

Student (Chicago, IL)

Age: 28 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • My biggest concern is how these sanctions might hurt my family in Iran.
  • As an international relations student, I am hugely interested in seeing how this policy will play out on a global scale.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 7
Year 3 6 8
Year 5 6 9
Year 10 7 9
Year 20 8 9

Homemaker (Houston, TX)

Age: 50 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I worry about my siblings in Iran and their wellbeing given the economic impact of more sanctions.
  • How will this affect basic goods and medicine availability? These are my biggest concerns.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 7
Year 3 6 8
Year 5 7 9
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 8 9

Policy Analyst (Washington, D.C.)

Age: 40 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy is a significant shift. It will likely influence geopolitical balances in the region.
  • While it's targeted, I do question the longer-term impacts on diplomatic relations.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 7 8

Retired (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 60 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm concerned about how easy it will be to visit my family under increased sanctions.
  • I'm also worried about potential negative perceptions or bias that may escalate with this policy.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 8 8

Software Developer (Seattle, WA)

Age: 31 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • My concern is whether these sanctions could lead to further restrictions impacting tech collaborations and travel to Iran.
  • I hope it doesn't affect our partnerships with teams that have Iranian members.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 8 9
Year 5 8 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 10

Academic Researcher (Boston, MA)

Age: 38 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy will provide plenty of material for research and analysis on U.S.-Iran relations.
  • However, I worry about the human aspect and potentially increased tensions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 9
Year 2 8 9
Year 3 8 9
Year 5 9 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 9

Healthcare Professional (Miami, FL)

Age: 48 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 8.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm particularly worried about how this will affect medical access and pharmaceuticals for Iranian families.
  • These sanctions can have unseen impacts on people's health and wellbeing in Iran.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 7 9
Year 5 7 9
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 9 9

Journalist (Atlanta, GA)

Age: 29 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think this policy will create new stories and dynamics worth reporting.
  • I'm watching to see how this affects not just Iran, but U.S. foreign policy at large.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 9 9

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $7500000 (Low: $6000000, High: $10000000)

Year 2: $7500000 (Low: $6000000, High: $10000000)

Year 3: $7500000 (Low: $6000000, High: $10000000)

Year 5: $7500000 (Low: $6000000, High: $10000000)

Year 10: $7500000 (Low: $6000000, High: $10000000)

Year 100: $7500000 (Low: $6000000, High: $10000000)

Key Considerations