Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8902

Bill Overview

Title: To direct the Secretary of Defense to notify Congress before carrying out an order to use a nuclear weapon without a declaration of war by Congress.

Description: This bill requires the Department of Defense to notify the congressional defense committees, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, the majority leader of the Senate, the minority leader of the House of Representatives, and the minority leader of the Senate (in such order) upon the receipt of an order (and prior to implementation) by the President to use nuclear weapons without a declaration of war by Congress.

Sponsors: Rep. Slotkin, Elissa [D-MI-8]

Target Audience

Population: Individuals potentially impacted by nuclear weapons use

Estimated Size: 330000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Defense Policy Analyst (Washington, D.C.)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy adds an extra layer of oversight which is crucial in contemporary geopolitical environments.
  • It may lead to more cautious engagements given the requirement for political leadership updates before nuclear use.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

Software Engineer (New York, NY)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • While this policy seems crucial, I feel indifferent as my life is not deeply touched by it daily.
  • It's reassuring but not something that I expect to affect my day-to-day wellbeing.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Retired (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 55 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Living in a major city, any policy that adds security oversight gives some comfort.
  • It feels slightly reassuring knowing there's a broader review before significant military actions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 6 5

Air Force Officer (Colorado Springs, CO)

Age: 38 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I believe this brings more accountability to our actions, which is always needed.
  • It places us under a more controlled framework but could limit speed of response.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 8 5

Teacher (Houston, TX)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy seems practical but doesn't change my daily concerns.
  • As a teacher, I'm more focused on immediate community issues.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Economist (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 47 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Policy might stabilize certain risk perceptions, leading to more confident economic conditions.
  • Geopolitical oversight can play a positive role for global market stability.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Civil Rights Lawyer (Seattle, WA)

Age: 50 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Greater checks on executive power are consistent with democratic ideals.
  • This policy reflects an approach that values precaution over unfettered military decisions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

College Student (Miami, FL)

Age: 22 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It aligns with strategic interests I'm learning about, ensuring careful military engagement.
  • Knowing there's another step in those processes feels secure.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 9 7

Nurse (Chicago, IL)

Age: 62 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Actions like this might prevent momentous consequences for public health.
  • Knowing that steps are needed before nuclear deployment is somewhat relieving as a health worker.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 7 5

Farmer (Rural Montana)

Age: 41 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This kind of policy doesn't really intersect with my daily life.
  • It's comforting to know there are checks, but I'm more concerned with local issues.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $2500000 (Low: $1000000, High: $5000000)

Year 2: $2500000 (Low: $1000000, High: $5000000)

Year 3: $2500000 (Low: $1000000, High: $5000000)

Year 5: $2500000 (Low: $1000000, High: $5000000)

Year 10: $2500000 (Low: $1000000, High: $5000000)

Year 100: $2500000 (Low: $1000000, High: $5000000)

Key Considerations