Bill Overview
Title: To require the Secretary of Defense to include additional elements in the plan and report on reduction of reliance on services, supplies, or materials from covered countries, and for other purposes.
Description: This bill updates the planning and reporting requirements related to reducing reliance on services, supplies, or materials obtained from covered countries (i.e., North Korea, China, Russia, and Iran). Specifically, the Department of Defense must submit a report describing the plan to reduce such reliance that includes specified elements and must review and update the plan every two years.
Sponsors: Rep. Slotkin, Elissa [D-MI-8]
Target Audience
Population: people working in industries reliant on supplies from covered countries
Estimated Size: 3000000
- The bill targets reducing reliance on goods and services from China, North Korea, Iran, and Russia, which are significant global suppliers.
- A significant amount of global trade, especially in tech and manufacturing, involves China, affecting industries worldwide.
- This type of policy impacts global supply chains, altering where materials are sourced and potentially affecting numerous workers in various countries.
- While the bill is led by US policy, the nature of global supply chains means non-US workers and companies could also be impacted, though they aren't direct targets of the legislation.
Reasoning
- The policy aims to reduce dependency on certain countries for supplies, which would primarily affect industries linked to defense, manufacturing, and technology within the US.
- Many people in affected industries live in urban and industrial areas where job shifts could occur due to new supply chain dynamics.
- The budget and target population indicate that this policy is not all-encompassing but targeted, affecting a subset of the population directly involved in these supply chains.
- The policy might also indirectly influence consumers, particularly those purchasing products with components originally sourced from these countries.
Simulated Interviews
Supply Chain Analyst (Seattle, WA)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about the immediate impacts on job security; shifting supply chains can lead to turbulence.
- In the long run, diversity in sourcing could stabilize the industry, but the transition will be challenging.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Factory Worker (Detroit, MI)
Age: 35 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I fear potential layoffs or plant closures during the shift to different supply sources.
- I hope for further job training as we adapt to new materials and processes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Software Engineer (Austin, TX)
Age: 42 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Switching away from Russian libraries might slow down projects initially.
- This can ultimately foster more secure and proprietary development.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Entrepreneur (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 30 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The need to find new suppliers is a huge strain for small businesses like mine.
- Increased costs might be passed on to consumers, affecting sales.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 9 |
Manufacturer (Pittsburgh, PA)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy is crucial for national security, even though it requires significant changes.
- The financial support to shift suppliers is appreciated.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Retail Worker (Portland, OR)
Age: 22 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned that fewer products on shelves might reduce my work hours.
- Hopeful that new product options could eventually arise from different suppliers.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Logistics Manager (Miami, FL)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Streamlining logistics to adapt to new sourcing will be challenging but rewarding.
- This shift could enhance long-term resilience in our supply chains.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Oil and Gas Executive (Houston, TX)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The bill forces a reconsideration of current partnerships, threatening existing contracts.
- New partnerships offer potential for growth and diversification.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Graduate Student (Boston, MA)
Age: 25 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy provides a valuable case study for my research.
- This shift in supply chains will impact future management practices significantly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Supplier (Chicago, IL)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 13/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy severely affects my business, reducing available materials.
- I'm optimistic about finding new markets to fill gaps left by restricted imports.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $150000000 (Low: $100000000, High: $200000000)
Year 2: $160000000 (Low: $110000000, High: $210000000)
Year 3: $170000000 (Low: $120000000, High: $220000000)
Year 5: $190000000 (Low: $140000000, High: $240000000)
Year 10: $230000000 (Low: $180000000, High: $280000000)
Year 100: $600000000 (Low: $400000000, High: $800000000)
Key Considerations
- The policy aligns with strategic national interests in reducing dependence on rival nations.
- Changes in supply chains are likely to disrupt short-term operations and require increased spending initially.
- Significant focus should be on the adaptability of domestic firms to fill supply gaps.