Bill Overview
Title: Federal Assault Weapons Licensing Act
Description: This bill directs the Department of Justice to establish a licensing system for the possession of semiautomatic assault weapons.
Sponsors: Rep. Jacobs, Chris [R-NY-27]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals who own or intend to own semiautomatic assault weapons
Estimated Size: 15000000
- This bill impacts individuals who own or wish to own semiautomatic assault weapons as they will now need to obtain a license.
- As the bill requires federal licensing, it applies to all current and potential assault weapon owners across the country.
- Current data suggests there are millions of assault weapon owners worldwide, particularly concentrated in countries with high gun ownership rates, such as the United States.
Reasoning
- The policy impacts those who currently own or seek to own semiautomatic assault weapons as it imposes a licensing requirement, possibly influencing accessibility to such firearms.
- The diverse geographical and demographic distribution in the U.S. means the policy will have varied impacts depending on individual circumstances, such as income level, geographical location, and personal views on gun ownership.
- The budgetary constraints of $500 million in year 1 and $2.4 billion over 10 years require efficient processing, meaning not all current or potential owners could be impacted immediately.
- Those in rural areas with cultural ties to gun ownership might feel different levels of impact compared to urban residents, due to logistical and attitudinal reasons.
- Given that gun ownership can be a deeply personal and political issue, the emotional and social ramifications are likely to be significant, influencing wellbeing.
Simulated Interviews
Ranch Owner (Texas)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about the additional red tape and costs associated with the licensing.
- The licensing might be a burden, but if it improves safety, it could be worth it.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Software Engineer (New York)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think the licenses are a good step towards safety.
- There's nothing wrong with verifying that gun owners are responsible.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Retired Police Officer (California)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Licensing could discourage potential criminals, hence, positive.
- I'm dubious about how this will be enforced without bias.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 4 |
Student (Georgia)
Age: 22 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I just got my first rifle; licensing adds more hassle.
- I worry about the costs this might bring for students like me.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Marine Biologist (Oregon)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I prefer a balance between personal freedom and community safety.
- As long as it's well-managed and transparent, I'm on board.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Veteran Services Manager (Arizona)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Licensing can be part of a structured approach to gun management.
- It's necessary for preventing misuse while retaining rights.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
High School Teacher (Illinois)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Though I don't own a gun, regulations are needed for safer schools.
- I hope this reduces neighborhood violence.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Lawyer (Florida)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Licensing might impede on constitutional rights.
- It’s going to be a legal challenge for current frameworks.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Firearms Instructor (New Hampshire)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could be a boon for training businesses as people need to get licensed.
- But it might initially reduce consumer interest in gun ownership.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Artist (Colorado)
Age: 40 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Licensing is a step, but not a comprehensive solution.
- It could raise awareness, but lacks on addressing root societal issues.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $500000000 (Low: $350000000, High: $650000000)
Year 2: $300000000 (Low: $250000000, High: $400000000)
Year 3: $200000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $250000000)
Year 5: $200000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $250000000)
Year 10: $200000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $250000000)
Year 100: $100000000 (Low: $75000000, High: $125000000)
Key Considerations
- The effectiveness of the licensing system in impacting gun violence rates.
- The administrative capacity of the Department of Justice to implement a new licensing system efficiently.
- Public opinion and potential political challenges surrounding gun legislation.
- The financial impact on individuals required to obtain licenses.