Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/8882

Bill Overview

Title: Federal Assault Weapons Licensing Act

Description: This bill directs the Department of Justice to establish a licensing system for the possession of semiautomatic assault weapons.

Sponsors: Rep. Jacobs, Chris [R-NY-27]

Target Audience

Population: Individuals who own or intend to own semiautomatic assault weapons

Estimated Size: 15000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Ranch Owner (Texas)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm concerned about the additional red tape and costs associated with the licensing.
  • The licensing might be a burden, but if it improves safety, it could be worth it.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 8
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 6

Software Engineer (New York)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think the licenses are a good step towards safety.
  • There's nothing wrong with verifying that gun owners are responsible.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 8 8

Retired Police Officer (California)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Licensing could discourage potential criminals, hence, positive.
  • I'm dubious about how this will be enforced without bias.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 4 4

Student (Georgia)

Age: 22 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I just got my first rifle; licensing adds more hassle.
  • I worry about the costs this might bring for students like me.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 5

Marine Biologist (Oregon)

Age: 38 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I prefer a balance between personal freedom and community safety.
  • As long as it's well-managed and transparent, I'm on board.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Veteran Services Manager (Arizona)

Age: 55 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Licensing can be part of a structured approach to gun management.
  • It's necessary for preventing misuse while retaining rights.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 9 8

High School Teacher (Illinois)

Age: 28 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Though I don't own a gun, regulations are needed for safer schools.
  • I hope this reduces neighborhood violence.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 7 6

Lawyer (Florida)

Age: 52 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Licensing might impede on constitutional rights.
  • It’s going to be a legal challenge for current frameworks.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 4 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Firearms Instructor (New Hampshire)

Age: 34 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This could be a boon for training businesses as people need to get licensed.
  • But it might initially reduce consumer interest in gun ownership.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 8 7

Artist (Colorado)

Age: 40 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Licensing is a step, but not a comprehensive solution.
  • It could raise awareness, but lacks on addressing root societal issues.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 5 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $500000000 (Low: $350000000, High: $650000000)

Year 2: $300000000 (Low: $250000000, High: $400000000)

Year 3: $200000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $250000000)

Year 5: $200000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $250000000)

Year 10: $200000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $250000000)

Year 100: $100000000 (Low: $75000000, High: $125000000)

Key Considerations